When do you know that BTC is going up even though it looks like it is going down? Simple, the constant bluffing, it keeps dipping under the trend line but goes back up before it creates irreversible damage. What is irreversible damage? Closing too many candles under a trend line or a moving average, because if it closes too many candles under resistance it creates unintended consequences such as another whale or too many buyers exiting the trade. In other words, the whale or exchange that's currently manipulating price could lose control over the situation they created, to avoid this they return price to a safe place (above the trend line) every one or two candles. Keep this in mind; Trading is manipulated by algorithms, algorithms are not hard to crack.
WHAT IS HAPPENING NOW? We've exited the long-standing downtrend channel, this channel was started back in June of last year and it has been nearly impossible to leave. We also have conquered all 3 of the obstacles that were holding us back and those obstacles have now become support. Our eye now is on the "Short term goal" depending on how we get there we may hold or sell immediately upon touching. If we get there in one fast candle we shall sell because that would indicate that we are coming down fast. If we get there slow we are looking at a possible sustainable uptrend and we should hold and set a stop loss instead. Why is there a concern about coming down? Simple, the death cross of the 50/200MA back in October. We are still under its influence and it is not that easy to escape, in fact in we go up fast, such as in one candle, the drop will be very significant because of it. Either way as I explained to you all back before the death cross happened it will take months to escape it, and this move that we are in the middle of and its outcome was also predicted months ago.
We are currently stuck here between the 20MA and the 100MA in the 3 day chart.
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NOW, THE LEGEND; Support trend lines are green Resistance trend lines are Red Horizontal support lines are white, the thicker the stronger the support 50 Moving Average is yellow 200 Moving Average is white
THE TREND: Going Up THE OUTLOOK: The Rally is here.
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For those that got out too early for whatever reason, these are some re-entry points. Remember going down is part of going up, let your winners run away!
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As I mentioned yesterday this move was expected, there are some patterns that BTC does not violate but in between there is chaos and mayhem.
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This is a good picture of what to expect. Each moving average is going to act as a barrier to dropping further, why? It will bring new buy orders in making it harder to drop to the next level. You can already see the 10MA putting the break on this drop. The strongest support is always the 61.8%/50MA.
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Something to keep an eye on.
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Perfect example of resistance becoming support, we are now being held up by the 100MA on the 1 day chart which used to be resistance.
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This is where we stand right now.
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We are ok retracing as far back as $7475.00 anything more than that and we are not looking healthy anymore. Also keep in mind that we can pull back quite a bit still but we can spend too much time under the 100MA. It is ok to dip below and to even close a little under one time, but we have to start going above it right away.
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For references: We can go as far down as 61.8% and still be ok. After that BTC would be showing too much weakness.
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