BTC The Past Present and Future
In my previous articles, I pointed out the current status of BTC. I expect an apology from those who insulted me for saying that BTC will fall in my previous analysis :).. https://tr.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSDT/JE6CRM39/
I think the current chart is trying to complete the head and shoulder pattern.
When we look at the past accumulation regions, we can see that the previous picture is similar to this one. According to this chart, it suggests that the price may decline to an average of 33K - 28K levels.
When we look at the weekly time frame, if the pattern we see is a harmonic pattern, we cannot expect the prices to rise before the fib of leg D falls to the 1.24 level. But I must say that I don't believe what I'm saying myself. So I don't think the price can go down to these levels.
But if the price hangs around here, we can summarize the support zones that may occur as follows;
When we projection with Schiff and Fan, we can say that the intersection of schiff and fann is a strong support. Especially the schiffin, which crosses the gann fan's 8/1 and 4/1 twice, may indicate that there may be strong support for the current price, although there is no accumulation in these regions. I marked these regions with red dots.
Based on all these assumptions, I expect the price to decline to the region indicated by the green box in the chart below. I don't believe it will go any lower. I also indicated the price resistances that may occur when there is an upward trend in the future with the Fibonacci channel. Of course, these are all assumptions and calculations based on the probability of repeating past data. However, I think that the price may definitely encounter a reaction at these levels in up or down movements.
When we look at BTC dominance, we can see that it is in the triangle range. In order for this triangle to be completed, I think the chart data should go down and regress to the 39 levels of dominance.
If we make a measurement with technical indicators, we can say that this level will go down even more. When we measure it with Fibonacci, we see that the earliest stop point is 36.
But the good news is that there is a bullish formation in graphic. When BTC completes the dominance pattern, a harmonic pattern in favor of the bull emerges. This will quickly increase the dominance to 55 .
When everything in the world and in nature comes to the highest or lowest level, it definitely turns upside down. That is, the highest one begins to descend, the lowest one begins to rise. It's like the law of physics. This never changes.. Nothing stays always down or always up. We can see this when we look at the BTC fear index.
If we talk about indicators; Considering that rsi graph data is a reflection frequency, we can use rsi not only with numerical measurements but also with graph measurements. I know it sounds silly, let's look at the graph.
I think there is a shark pattern on the rsi in the chart above. I know that graphic analysis will not be done on the indicators, but I would like to share it with you because it works for me most of the time. According to the theoretical knowledge, this harmonic pattern should reduce the data numerically. If this is a shark pattern as I thought, the rsi value should regress up to 10 . If we compare this with the real price chart, we can think that prices can decrease up to 30K levels on average.
We can see the power of the sellers on the aroon indicator in the daily time frame. We see that the trend in the adx indicator is strong and the levels of the adx should regress in order to start an upward movement again. but this way it can point to new trend. Cmf is my favorite indicator. It never surprises. It can even eliminate manipulated movements. It's like a graph filtering indicator for me. So I see that despite such a strong price drop, it still does not produce a strong signal.
In order to say that the prices will definitely go up, the cmf must go down to -20 and below. Currently at -5 levels. Momentum indicator shows -3100. This value definitely indicates an upward reversal. But according to an algorithm that I have formulated using the data of all of them together with other indicators, the value of momentum indicator for upturn does not reflect the truth yet. In the algorithm I formulated, the ratio of the momentum indicator to the other indicators has always changed direction. However, although the value of the momentum indicator is very high, its proportioning with other indicators does not give the return score. As a result of the prolonged decline of BTC, I think the data of this indicator is bottom. To summarize briefly; I expect the BTC price to be in the 24K to 30K range. After returning from these price levels, I think that a long-term rise is certain.
NOTE: This is not investment advice.
I think the current chart is trying to complete the head and shoulder pattern.
When we look at the past accumulation regions, we can see that the previous picture is similar to this one. According to this chart, it suggests that the price may decline to an average of 33K - 28K levels.
When we look at the weekly time frame, if the pattern we see is a harmonic pattern, we cannot expect the prices to rise before the fib of leg D falls to the 1.24 level. But I must say that I don't believe what I'm saying myself. So I don't think the price can go down to these levels.
But if the price hangs around here, we can summarize the support zones that may occur as follows;
When we projection with Schiff and Fan, we can say that the intersection of schiff and fann is a strong support. Especially the schiffin, which crosses the gann fan's 8/1 and 4/1 twice, may indicate that there may be strong support for the current price, although there is no accumulation in these regions. I marked these regions with red dots.
Based on all these assumptions, I expect the price to decline to the region indicated by the green box in the chart below. I don't believe it will go any lower. I also indicated the price resistances that may occur when there is an upward trend in the future with the Fibonacci channel. Of course, these are all assumptions and calculations based on the probability of repeating past data. However, I think that the price may definitely encounter a reaction at these levels in up or down movements.
When we look at BTC dominance, we can see that it is in the triangle range. In order for this triangle to be completed, I think the chart data should go down and regress to the 39 levels of dominance.
If we make a measurement with technical indicators, we can say that this level will go down even more. When we measure it with Fibonacci, we see that the earliest stop point is 36.
But the good news is that there is a bullish formation in graphic. When BTC completes the dominance pattern, a harmonic pattern in favor of the bull emerges. This will quickly increase the dominance to 55 .
When everything in the world and in nature comes to the highest or lowest level, it definitely turns upside down. That is, the highest one begins to descend, the lowest one begins to rise. It's like the law of physics. This never changes.. Nothing stays always down or always up. We can see this when we look at the BTC fear index.
If we talk about indicators; Considering that rsi graph data is a reflection frequency, we can use rsi not only with numerical measurements but also with graph measurements. I know it sounds silly, let's look at the graph.
I think there is a shark pattern on the rsi in the chart above. I know that graphic analysis will not be done on the indicators, but I would like to share it with you because it works for me most of the time. According to the theoretical knowledge, this harmonic pattern should reduce the data numerically. If this is a shark pattern as I thought, the rsi value should regress up to 10 . If we compare this with the real price chart, we can think that prices can decrease up to 30K levels on average.
We can see the power of the sellers on the aroon indicator in the daily time frame. We see that the trend in the adx indicator is strong and the levels of the adx should regress in order to start an upward movement again. but this way it can point to new trend. Cmf is my favorite indicator. It never surprises. It can even eliminate manipulated movements. It's like a graph filtering indicator for me. So I see that despite such a strong price drop, it still does not produce a strong signal.
In order to say that the prices will definitely go up, the cmf must go down to -20 and below. Currently at -5 levels. Momentum indicator shows -3100. This value definitely indicates an upward reversal. But according to an algorithm that I have formulated using the data of all of them together with other indicators, the value of momentum indicator for upturn does not reflect the truth yet. In the algorithm I formulated, the ratio of the momentum indicator to the other indicators has always changed direction. However, although the value of the momentum indicator is very high, its proportioning with other indicators does not give the return score. As a result of the prolonged decline of BTC, I think the data of this indicator is bottom. To summarize briefly; I expect the BTC price to be in the 24K to 30K range. After returning from these price levels, I think that a long-term rise is certain.
NOTE: This is not investment advice.
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