13/01/25 Weekly outlook
تم تحديثه
Last weeks high: $102,745.89
Last weeks low: $91,200.80
Midpoint: $96,973.35
A shaky week for BTC and the broader crypto market, mostly due to stronger than expected PMI and unemployment numbers decreasing the likelihood of rate cuts or at least a less aggressive rate cut cycle than previously expected due to a stronger economy. This is bad news for risk-on assets as borrowing capital stays expensive, with the next FOMC minutes coming less than 10 days after Trumps inauguration, last weeks bearish PA is a move to price in a no cut interest rate decision IMO.
The weekly low is once again ~$91-92K which is a key area of support on the higher timeframes crating a rangebound environment so it should be treated as such, if weekly low is lost and price is accepted below then $85,000 comes into play as next support. This would be a capitulation wick IMO to trap the fearful before a very pro crypto administration begins in the US in a weeks time.
At the same time price acceptance above ~$102,000 would be a bullish breakout of this rangebound environment and would signal the move to ATH at $108,000. I do believe we make new highs this quarter, I'm not sure how soon we will do that I think there is caution in the market going into January 20th and so unless there is critical news (maybe CPI on Wednesday) before then that changes this dynamic, a choppy week is expected.
This week I'm cautiously optimistic about getting some good altcoin entries at key levels in strong fundamental plays. If BTC does hold above weekly low for the week I can see some very good opportunities presenting themselves.
Last weeks low: $91,200.80
Midpoint: $96,973.35
A shaky week for BTC and the broader crypto market, mostly due to stronger than expected PMI and unemployment numbers decreasing the likelihood of rate cuts or at least a less aggressive rate cut cycle than previously expected due to a stronger economy. This is bad news for risk-on assets as borrowing capital stays expensive, with the next FOMC minutes coming less than 10 days after Trumps inauguration, last weeks bearish PA is a move to price in a no cut interest rate decision IMO.
The weekly low is once again ~$91-92K which is a key area of support on the higher timeframes crating a rangebound environment so it should be treated as such, if weekly low is lost and price is accepted below then $85,000 comes into play as next support. This would be a capitulation wick IMO to trap the fearful before a very pro crypto administration begins in the US in a weeks time.
At the same time price acceptance above ~$102,000 would be a bullish breakout of this rangebound environment and would signal the move to ATH at $108,000. I do believe we make new highs this quarter, I'm not sure how soon we will do that I think there is caution in the market going into January 20th and so unless there is critical news (maybe CPI on Wednesday) before then that changes this dynamic, a choppy week is expected.
This week I'm cautiously optimistic about getting some good altcoin entries at key levels in strong fundamental plays. If BTC does hold above weekly low for the week I can see some very good opportunities presenting themselves.
ملاحظة
Testing weekly low already, a bit sooner than expected but a wick below and reclaim could be bullish as it is in many occasions, the opposite to last weeks SFP of the weekly high. ملاحظة
Wicked below and reclaimed for now but this is not acceptance just yet.
NY open will be very important here.
ملاحظة
NY open looks positive so far, back above weekly low after a deeper wick.
Next step is acceptance back above.
ملاحظة
Back above 4H 200 EMA after a very strong recovery from the wick below weekly low.
The same support area holding yet again, some really impressive strength there.
Here comes the midpoint test...
ملاحظة
Bullish PPI data pushes price over the midpoint briefly but retraces to just under, that's the second test now.
NY open soon and pre market looks bullish, a flip of the midpoint and acceptance above should then trigger the move towards weekly high.
ملاحظة
Some very choppy price action but BTC reclaims the 4H 200 EMA going into US CPI. Expecting chop going into the data release. ملاحظة
CPI comes in as expected YoY, market reacting well initially off the news and the range midpoint flipped, once the volatility cools we should be clear to run up towards the range highs.ملاحظة
Beautiful price action, the prediction of a reverse of the previous weeks move has come true and the weekly high is within 1%.
Looking for a strong finish to the week before Trump's second administration begins on Monday!
أغلقت الصفقة: تم الوصول للهدف
WEEKLY HIGH HIT
A complete mirror image of the previous weeks SFP, a great V-shaped recovery going into Trumps administration. Exciting times ahead.
ملاحظة
Price acceptance above weekly high is very bullish going into this new pro-crypto administration.
A weekly close above $104,500 would be the highest close for BTC ever!
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