BTC would be ranging for months - A distribution scenario

١٧ نوفمبر ٢٠٢٣

The recent moves of BTC are very remarkable: a big jump of 40% in just three weeks. But the next moves would be very tough and unpredictable.

In my opinion, in weekly TF, the current support is $36000 (Fib. 0.5) and the current resistance is $42000 (Fib. 0.618). It is possible that BTC will be trading in this new range (need the current weekly candle to close above $36000). If so, this range would last for months as what happened when BTC was in the previous range from $25000 (Fib 0.236) to $30000 (Fib 0.382) for 7 months!

So, here is my view for the next months:

• Distribution around $36000-$42000
  
• BTC would retest Fib 0.318 level ($31000) and even the long-term trendline (around $25000-$26000)
  
• At that area, a strong bounce expected to reach $42000 gain. The upside would resume then.
  

What are your thoughts and your mid-term/long-term plans?


Disclaimer:
This analysis is based on my personnal views and is not a financial advice. Risk is under your control.

١٢ ديسمبر ٢٠٢٣

ملاحظة

I'm still watching this mid-term scenario

٢٧ ديسمبر ٢٠٢٣

ملاحظة

Althought current prices seem to be higher but the move of BTC in thi analysis is still my preference one

٣٠ ديسمبر ٢٠٢٣

ملاحظة

A comparison with two previous cycles (with halving event) shows that at approximate 50% of the nearest ATH, BTC corrects deeply 40%-50%. In my opinion, we should not go all in right now event if Bitcoin ETF will be accepted the next days. Risk manament and be prepared for the corrections are vital and really help for long-term run.

٣ يناير

ملاحظة

The sell off of today shows that any news linked to ETF can pump/dump market immediately. I'm still watching this scenario

٤ فبراير

ملاحظة

Will some thing big happen this month?