Bearish Reversal: Supply Zone to Profit Zone

قبل ٨ ساعات

1. Uptrend and Resistance Trendline : Correct Analysis: The chart shows a clear uptrend marked by higher highs and higher lows. The price eventually breaks this uptrend with a significant downward move, indicating a possible Break of Structure (BOS) and trend reversal.
   
   
2. Break of Structure (BOS) : Correct Analysis: The BOS is valid as the price broke below a significant swing low within the uptrend, showing that bearish momentum has overpowered the bulls.
   
   
3. Change of Character (CoCh) : CoCh is visible in two locations, where the price shifts from making higher highs and higher lows to creating lower highs and lower lows, indicating a bearish reversal. This confirms the weakening of the bullish structure.
   
   
4. Supply Zone
   The supply zone is well-marked, encompassing:
   Order Block: A bearish candle before the strong down move, representing institutional sell orders.
   Price Imbalance (FVG): A visible gap in price action, where sellers were dominant and buyers failed to fill the gap completely. The price often retraces to these levels before continuing its direction.
   The price has rejected this zone, suggesting it’s acting as resistance.
   
   
5. Overbought RSI : The RSI entered overbought territory during the prior rally, followed by divergence and a downward move. This supports the idea that the bulls are losing momentum.
   
   
6. Targets : The highlighted demand zone around 76,000 USDT aligns with a strong historical support level. If bearish momentum persists, this zone is a logical target. Below it, the next demand zone around 68,000 USDT is valid as a long-term target.
   
   
7. Potential Short Setup : Given the BOS, CoCh, supply zone rejection, and overbought RSI, a bearish bias is justified. A short trade targeting the demand zones you’ve marked aligns well with the analysis.
   

Refinement:

1. Volume Confirmation: Look at the volume profile to ensure that the BOS and CoCh are supported by high bearish volume. This strengthens the bearish thesis.
   
2. Bearish Candlestick Patterns: Monitor for further bearish confirmation (e.g., bearish engulfing or pin bar) in the supply zone to increase trade confidence.
   
3. Lower Timeframe Analysis: If unsure about entry, drop to a lower timeframe (e.g., 1H or 15M) to confirm rejection or bearish structure.