29/07/24 Weekly outlook
تم تحديثه
Last weeks high: $69,404.60
Last weeks low: $63,458.72
Midpoint: $66,431.66
As July comes to an end a lot has happened in the last month, from starting the month @ $53,000 to now just above '21 ATH.
Last week we saw a lot of volatility caused by some news events, namely the ETH ETF & Bitcoin Conference. The structure of the price range differs to the previous two weeks were price started low and finished high. In this instance we have a midweek low after ETHEREUM ETF went live and then price ramped back up in anticipation for the BTC conference with Donald Trump making a speech as well as Michael Saylor and RFK jr, all of which were extremely bullish on the crypto space and pledged to improve Americas relationship with the industry and increase holdings of BTC.
Now price is currently positioned above the $69,000 '21 ATH which has been one of the most important S/R levels over the last year, acting as the catalyst for major moves off both upside and down. I would like to see the daily close out above this level with conviction, general sentiment is to get nervous at this level as in the past it has failed to hold. CT is silent even though we're within touching distance of ATH and that purely comes from repetitive failure to hold this line.
This week I'm keeping an eye on the inflows and outflows of both BTC & ETH ETFs, the $69,000 S/R level and strength returning to the altcoin market which has continued to take a back seat in recent weeks/ months. Blackrock have expressed their want to increase exposure to RWAs and so real world assets on the Ethereum chain could be a good place to start.
Last weeks low: $63,458.72
Midpoint: $66,431.66
As July comes to an end a lot has happened in the last month, from starting the month @ $53,000 to now just above '21 ATH.
Last week we saw a lot of volatility caused by some news events, namely the ETH ETF & Bitcoin Conference. The structure of the price range differs to the previous two weeks were price started low and finished high. In this instance we have a midweek low after ETHEREUM ETF went live and then price ramped back up in anticipation for the BTC conference with Donald Trump making a speech as well as Michael Saylor and RFK jr, all of which were extremely bullish on the crypto space and pledged to improve Americas relationship with the industry and increase holdings of BTC.
Now price is currently positioned above the $69,000 '21 ATH which has been one of the most important S/R levels over the last year, acting as the catalyst for major moves off both upside and down. I would like to see the daily close out above this level with conviction, general sentiment is to get nervous at this level as in the past it has failed to hold. CT is silent even though we're within touching distance of ATH and that purely comes from repetitive failure to hold this line.
This week I'm keeping an eye on the inflows and outflows of both BTC & ETH ETFs, the $69,000 S/R level and strength returning to the altcoin market which has continued to take a back seat in recent weeks/ months. Blackrock have expressed their want to increase exposure to RWAs and so real world assets on the Ethereum chain could be a good place to start.
ملاحظة
So far SFP on last weeks high and $69,000 YET AGAIN BTC FAILS TO STAY ABOVE $69,000 '21 ATH.
Still yet to close out the daily but not looking good.
The rumour is the US Gov is selling their BTC after Trump vowed to never sell, a petty move but not completely surprising if that is the case...
ملاحظة
Daily close below the '21 high thanks to the US GOV playing games and moving over 22B worth of BTC from one wallet to another dropping price by 5%.For now price has swept the MIDPOINT liquidity and reclaimed the level.
If the US GOV is serious about selling its reserve before a potential Donald Trump takeover, things could get ugly just like how the German Gov sold everything recently.
ملاحظة
Going into FOMC BTC is at the MIDPOINT of the range. There are whispers of the FED opening the door to rate cuts in SEPTEMBER. Any confirmation of this should be bullish for the market.
Could see a whipsaw down to 0.25 line and 0.75 line on the data release, leverage traders beware.
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