$BTC - is it a trap?
My bearish bias has dwindled significantly with this breakout
Definitely more comfortable with this bullishness than previous 50k breakout since the previous 50K breakout had more reason to be a bull trap than an actual breakout.
I was expecting a drop lower to previous support at the previous 36k area but because BTC created a new support at 40k way above 36k , proves to me that we are bullish long run.
There is little reason that I can see to retest the 40k area and all the best reason to destroy bears right now.
There is more reason to push price up to the next SR level.
Expecting to see price reach ~52k briefly touching the VaH and then retest 49-50k but I'm 60/ 40 on this move since I feel like most of it is me thinking aka wishing aka feeling aka bad for trading that this would be the best confidence building scenario for retail.
I've been falling into a lot of traps lately, so it's been on my mind a ton.
From experience I know that traps are built on hype. So far I've found that the more intense the hype, the more likely and more often.
Always a contributing factor would also be how many recklessly bullish people there are that, through their funds, are over leveraging and acting emotionally.
Emotions are what drives hype and gambling, which is great food for whales.
This hype can be somewhat measured on social media through the number and frequency of bullish posts.
Of course there are many other ways like gut, but that takes experience.
You can always sense the rising hype, which is a great indicator of market volatility. The trick is to not get roped into it.
So far I've found that if you have a good intuition for psych (and can slap yourself as soon as you get too excited) studying social media and demographic the way you would study a Wyckoff composite man could give you an edge and good feel for when the likelihood of a trap is about to happen
Definitely more comfortable with this bullishness than previous 50k breakout since the previous 50K breakout had more reason to be a bull trap than an actual breakout.
I was expecting a drop lower to previous support at the previous 36k area but because BTC created a new support at 40k way above 36k , proves to me that we are bullish long run.
There is little reason that I can see to retest the 40k area and all the best reason to destroy bears right now.
There is more reason to push price up to the next SR level.
Expecting to see price reach ~52k briefly touching the VaH and then retest 49-50k but I'm 60/ 40 on this move since I feel like most of it is me thinking aka wishing aka feeling aka bad for trading that this would be the best confidence building scenario for retail.
I've been falling into a lot of traps lately, so it's been on my mind a ton.
From experience I know that traps are built on hype. So far I've found that the more intense the hype, the more likely and more often.
Always a contributing factor would also be how many recklessly bullish people there are that, through their funds, are over leveraging and acting emotionally.
Emotions are what drives hype and gambling, which is great food for whales.
This hype can be somewhat measured on social media through the number and frequency of bullish posts.
Of course there are many other ways like gut, but that takes experience.
You can always sense the rising hype, which is a great indicator of market volatility. The trick is to not get roped into it.
So far I've found that if you have a good intuition for psych (and can slap yourself as soon as you get too excited) studying social media and demographic the way you would study a Wyckoff composite man could give you an edge and good feel for when the likelihood of a trap is about to happen
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