Pressure on the oil market is growing

٦ سبتمبر ٢٠١٨

The rise of oil process that has been observed recently was associated with the threat of hurricane Gordon in the Gulf of Mexico. More precisely, with it’s possible large-scale consequences. Recall that last year the strongest hurricane led to the shutdown of a number of refineries in the US coast and caused the imbalance in the oil market. Similar feared and this year.

But judging by the latest information, the consequences will not be catastrophic. Watching the dynamics of oil prices in the last couple of days, the markets no longer consider this factor as a possible negative.
The main threat to the oil market for today is the US sanctions against Iran and their possible consequences in terms of reducing supply in the oil market.

But on the other hand, we have Trump's trading wars, which call into question the economic growth in the world and, accordingly, reduce the forecasts for oil demand. This means that oil is also being pressured. Panic moods and sales in emerging markets (among victims are Turkey, South Africa, Indonesia, Argentina and many others) uniquely generate a negative information background for oil.

So, our strategic vision for the oil market remains unchanged. In the conditions when OPEC + ceased to exist, and the demand for oil is threatened by the crisis in emerging markets, any increase in oil should be used for its sale. And such short-term panic attacks like oil growth on fears of hurricane "Gordon" should be used for oil sales.