So oil broke the trendline (Green) strongly, and moved below 80 as previously predicted. Its next moev will be to the 75 level, from where it will have a temporary reprieve towards 80 and then head back towards 69.
There are multiple reasons for Oil to move down.
1. Its all about Geopolitics.
In order to starve the Russian warchest of additional funds, the oil prices need to make a sharp turn down. For the GCC countries, an oil price of 55 is a sweet spot to ensure that the Gulf economies remain robust and protest free. While pushing the oil price down means that russia becomes more beholden to china, who does not want major issues with their trade partners, and will continue to push the Kremlin for bigger discounts for their implicit support. Reducing the ability of the Russian war machine to be fueled. So the price of oil needs to go further down, to the 60s.
2. Demand and supply: fear of recession is pushing demand down further into the future. So we can expect oil prices to be impacted by this fall in demand.
3. Climate change: Climate change politics will drive demand down for fossil fuels as well as for plastic. this will impact the demand for oil since its the black gold which is used as the raw material for all things plastic.
4. Dollar Index.: As the dollar rises, Oil prices fall.
I am still bearish on oil ...
More discussions regarding movements can be done via private messages.
There are multiple reasons for Oil to move down.
1. Its all about Geopolitics.
In order to starve the Russian warchest of additional funds, the oil prices need to make a sharp turn down. For the GCC countries, an oil price of 55 is a sweet spot to ensure that the Gulf economies remain robust and protest free. While pushing the oil price down means that russia becomes more beholden to china, who does not want major issues with their trade partners, and will continue to push the Kremlin for bigger discounts for their implicit support. Reducing the ability of the Russian war machine to be fueled. So the price of oil needs to go further down, to the 60s.
2. Demand and supply: fear of recession is pushing demand down further into the future. So we can expect oil prices to be impacted by this fall in demand.
3. Climate change: Climate change politics will drive demand down for fossil fuels as well as for plastic. this will impact the demand for oil since its the black gold which is used as the raw material for all things plastic.
4. Dollar Index.: As the dollar rises, Oil prices fall.
I am still bearish on oil ...
More discussions regarding movements can be done via private messages.
