$CNIRYY - Deflationary CPI

- While numbers remain inflationary,
having the latest increase to 3.2% on August 10th,
on the other side of the World from the second Global Superpower,
came Deflationary at negative 0.3% on 9'th of August,
just a day prior to numbers of .

Note that The Head of Federal Reserve,
our pal Jerome Powell,
stated that Feds do not see Inflation coming down to their norm target of 2% CPI
by 2025.
Jerome still believes on a 'Soft Landing'..

How about another Joke, Powell !?

ملاحظة

China's CPI remained unchanged in September 2023 from a year earlier, following a 0.1% rise in the previous month and falling short of the market consensus for a 0.2% gain. The latest data indicated persistent deflationary pressures in the world's second-largest economy, raising concerns about the sustainability of the economic recovery due to sluggish demand. Food prices dropped by 3.2% (vs -1.7% in August), driven by a steeper decline in pork prices (-22% vs -17.9%). Meanwhile, non-food inflation accelerated to 0.7% (vs 0.5% in August), driven by price increases in clothing (1.1%, the same as in August), housing (0.2% vs 0.1%), health (1.3% vs 1.2%), and education (2.5%, the same as in August). At the same time, prices for transport fell at a slower rate (-1.3% vs -2.1%). The annual core inflation rate, which excludes food and energy prices, remained unchanged at 0.8% in September. On a monthly basis, the CPI rose by 0.2% in September, compared to the consensus of 0.3%.

source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

ملاحظة

[Back to Deflationary]

Monthly, the CPI unexpectedly fell by 0.2%,
compared with the consensus of a flat figure and after a 0.2% rise in September.
China's consumer prices dropped by 0.2% YoY in October 2023,
compared with a flat reading in the prior month and forecasts of a 0.1% fall.
Core consumer prices, which exclude prices of food and energy, increased by 0.6% yoy in October, the least in 4 months

ملاحظة

November's 2023 CPI

China's Consumer Prices fell by 0.5% YoY in November 2023,
steeper than a 0.2% drop in the prior month and compared with market forecasts of a 0.1% fall.
It was the fastest decline in the CPI since November 2020,
as the cost of food decreased at the strongest pace in over two years (-4.2% vs -4.0% in October)
Meantime,
non-food inflation notably slowed (0.4% vs 0.7%),
due to moderation in the cost of education (1.8% vs 2.3%) and a quicker drop in transport prices (-2.4% vs -0.9%).
Simultaneously, inflation was unchanged for both housing (at 0.3%) and health (at 1.3%) while accelerating for clothing (1.3% vs 1.1%).
Core consumer prices, which exclude prices of food and energy, increased by 0.6% yoy in November, the same as in October.
Monthly, the CPI also dropped by 0.5%, compared with consensus and October's figure of a 0.1% decrease.

source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

ملاحظة

(December 2023 data)

China's consumer prices fell by 0.3% YoY in December 2023,
marking the third straight month of decline which was the longest streak of drop since October 2009.
Figures came less than market forecasts of a 0.4% fall while moderating from the steepest decrease in 3 years of 0.5% for November, with food prices declining the least since September (-3.7% vs -4.2% in November) as pork prices fell at a softer rate.
Meanwhile, non-food inflation edged higher (0.5% vs 0.4%), as cost continued to rise for clothing (1.4% vs 1.3%), housing (0.3% vs 0.3%), health (1.4% vs 1.3%), and education (1.8% vs 1.8%); while a decline transport prices eased slightly (-2.2% vs -2.4%).
Core consumer price, which exclude prices of food and energy, increased by 0.6% yoy in December, the same as in the previous two months.
For the full year, consumer prices rose by 0.2%. Monthly, the CPI inched up by 0.1%, pointing to the first rise in three months but falling below the consensus of a 0.2% rise.

source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

ملاحظة

(January 2024)

China's consumer prices fell by 0.8% yoy in January 2024,
the most in more than 14 years and worse than market forecasts of a 0.5% fall. It was the fourth straight month of decline in CPI, the longest streak of drop since October 2009.
Food prices declined at a record pace (-5.9% vs -3.7% in December).
Meanwhile,
non-food inflation was down to 0.4% (vs 0.5%), as a decline in transport prices quickened (-2.4% vs -2.2%) while cost continued to rise for clothing (1.6% vs 1.4%), housing (0.3% vs 0.3%), health (1.3% vs 1.4%) and education (1.3% vs 1.8%). Core consumer prices, which exclude prices of food and energy, increased by 0.4% yoy in January, the softest rise since last June, after a 0.6% gain in the prior three months.
Monthly, the CPI rose by 0.3%, indicating the second straight month of increase and hitting its highest level since last August. In 2023, consumer prices rose by 0.2%.

source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

ملاحظة

China's consumer prices rose by 0.7% yoy in February 2024, above market forecasts of 0.3% and a turnaround from the sharpest drop in over 14 years of 0.8% in January.
The latest result was the first consumer inflation since last August, hitting its highest level in 11 months due to robust spending during the Lunar New Year holiday.
Food prices declined the least in eight months (-0.9% vs -5.9% in January), reflecting upturns in costs of pork and fresh vegetables.
Meantime, non-food inflation sharply accelerated to 1.1% from the prior 0.4%, with prices rising further for clothing (1.6% vs 1.6%), housing (0.2% vs 0.3%), health (1.5% vs 1.3%), and education (3.9% vs 1.3%); while a fall in transport prices strongly moderated (-0.4% vs -2.4%).
The core CPI, deducting food and energy prices, increased by 1.2% yoy in February, the most since January 2022.
Monthly, consumer prices increased 1.0%, marking the third straight month of rise and hitting its highest level since January 2021.

source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

ملاحظة

Worth looking video regarding Deflation status compared to
Japan's Deflationary era from 3 decades ago.

youtube.com/watch?v=azW8vygS_mU

ملاحظة

(March/2024)

China's consumer prices edged up 0.1% yoy in March 2024, compared with market forecasts of 0.4% and after a 0.7% rise in the previous month.
The notable slowdown came as the effects of the Lunar New Year waned, with non-food inflation easing (0.7% vs 1.1% in February) as the cost of education moderated sharply (1.8% vs 3.9%) while transport prices fell further (-1.3% vs -0.4%). Simultaneously, inflation was unchanged for clothing (at 1.6%), housing (at 0.2%), and health (at 1.5%).
On the food side, prices fell much steeper (-2.7% vs -0.9%), as costs of pork and fresh vegetables turned lower following rises in February.
The core consumer prices, deducting food and energy prices, increased by 0.6% yoy in March, slowing from the prior 1.2% which was the fastest rise since January 2022.
Monthly, the CPI decreased 1.0%, the first fall in four months and a reversal from a 1.0% rise in February. It came worse than estimates of a 0.5% drop, pointing to the steepest monthly fall in 3 years.

source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

ملاحظة

(April/2024)

China's annual inflation rate rose to 0.3% in April 2024,
compared with market estimates and March's figure of a 0.1%.
It was the third straight month of consumer inflation,
amid ongoing recovery in domestic demand despite a fragile economic revival.
The core consumer prices, deducting food and energy prices, increased by 0.7% yoy in April, compared with a 0.6% rise in March.
Monthly, the CPI increased by 0.1%, a reversal from a 1.0% fall in March which was the steepest decline in three years.

source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

ملاحظة

(June/2024)
source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

China's annual inflation rate edged down to 0.2% in June 2024 from 0.3% in the prior two months, falling short of market estimates of 0.4%.
It was the fifth straight month of consumer inflation but the lowest figure since March amid a fragile economic recovery.
Food prices slipped for the 12th month (-2.1% vs -2.0%) despite a steep acceleration in pork prices during the Dragon Boat Festival.
Meanwhile, non-food inflation was stable (at 0.8%), with prices rising further for clothing (1.5% vs 1.6% in May), housing (0.2% vs 0.2%), health (1.5% vs 1.5%), and education (1.7% vs 1.7%). At the same time, transport cost continued to fall (-0.3% vs -0.2%), as moves from some of China’s public utility companies to raise utility prices earlier in the year had a limited impact.
The core consumer prices, deducting food and energy costs, increased 0.6% yoy, the same as in May.
Monthly, the CPI declined by 0.2%, the third time of fall so far this year, compared with the consensus of a 0.1% fall.

ملاحظة

(July/2024)
source: National Bureau of Statistics of China

China Inflation Rate Hits 5-Month Peak

China's annual inflation rate climbed to 0.5% in July, the highest since February, from 0.2% in June, and above forecasts of 0.3%.
It was the sixth month of consumer inflation, amid signs of a turnaround in food prices and a further rise in non-food cost.
Meanwhile, producer prices fell by 0.8% yoy, the same as in June.

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