Corcept Therapeutics: A Shining Star in US Biotech

٢٠ سبتمبر

Corcept Therapeutics is making waves in the booming U.S. biotech scene, with its stock surging 46.2% over the past six months. The company, known for its Cushing's syndrome drug, Korlym, reported a staggering 39.1% year-over-year sales increase, reaching $310.6 million in H1 2024. With a market cap of $4.42 billion, Corcept is actively developing new treatments like Relacorilant, which shows promise in clinical trials.

Despite a high PE ratio of 35.3x compared to the industry average of 19x, its strong revenue growth and commitment to R&D position it as a solid investment opportunity in the fast-growing biotech market projected to reach $1,786 billion by 2033.

◉ The US Biotech Industry Outlook
The biotech boom in the U.S. is hotter than a California summer! Fueled by groundbreaking tech and government cheerleading, the industry is soaring higher than a SpaceX rocket. According to Vision Research Reports, the market is projected to soar by 12.4% CAGR from 2024 to 2033. This rapid expansion is driven by advancements in areas like genomics, gene editing, and personalized medicine, positioning the U.S. as a global leader in healthcare innovation.

➖ The US biotechnology market size was valued at $552.43 billion in 2023 and is anticipated to hit around $1,786 billion by 2033.
➖ Key players like Abbvie Inc., Genentech Inc., and Amgen Inc. are leading the market.

Acknowledging the remarkable expansion of the biotech sector, we are taking a closer look at a stock that is showing considerable strength in its technical chart, complemented by robust financial performance.

◉ Company Overview
Corcept Therapeutics CORT is a biopharmaceutical company dedicated to developing innovative treatments for severe endocrine, oncologic, and metabolic disorders. Their lead product, Korlym, is approved for Cushing's syndrome, a rare endocrine condition. Corcept is also advancing several pipeline candidates, including relacorilant for Cushing's syndrome, treatments for various cancers, and potential therapies for neurological conditions like amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis. Founded in 1998, Corcept is based in Menlo Park, California.

◉ Significant Stock Performance of Corcept Therapeutics
Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated's stock price has risen 46.2% in the past six months, despite a 2% industry decline. This surge is attributed to strong demand for Korlym, the company's sole marketed drug used to treat Cushing's syndrome, a condition that is primarily cured with mifepristone.

◉ The Economic Impact of Korlym
The primary source of revenue for Corcept emanates from the sales of Korlym. The drug has showcased remarkable growth, evidenced by a 39.1% year-over-year sales increase, culminating in $310.6 million during the first half of 2024. This growth is attributed to robust demand and an unprecedented number of patients being prescribed the medication.

◉ Corcept's Stock Growth Factors
● Potential of Relacorilant: Positive GRACE study results suggest relacorilant could be a valuable treatment for Cushing's syndrome, potentially driving revenue growth.
● Pipeline Diversification: Corcept's ongoing exploration of relacorilant in GRADIENT study demonstrates commitment to expanding pipeline.
● Regulatory Progress: Successful completion of GRACE study positions Corcept for a new drug application in late 2024.
● Market Need: Successful relacorilant could fill significant unmet medical need for Cushing's syndrome.

Investent Advice by Naranj Capital
Buy Corcept Therapeutics CORT
● Buy Range- 38 - 40
● Target- 55 - 58
● Potential Return- 35% - 40%
● Invest Duration- 12-14 Months

◉ Market Capitalization - $4.42 B

◉ Peer Companies

● Prestige Consumer Healthcare PBH - $3.644 B
● Jazz Pharmaceuticals JAZZ - $6.766 B
● Amphastar Pharmaceuticals AMPH - $2.423 B
● Organon OGN - $5.142 B

◉ Relative Strength

➖ The chart distinctly demonstrates that CORT has significantly surpassed the US Smallcap 2000 index, attaining an impressive annual return of 30%, marking a remarkable accomplishment.

◉ Technical Aspects

● Monthly Chart
➖ The historical chart shows that the stock price is trending upward, marked by a sequence of higher highs and higher lows.
➖ Having recently moved out of the parallel channel, the price is set for additional gains.

● Daily Chart
➖ After an extended period of consolidation, the stock price has formed an Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern.
➖ Post-breakout, the stock has stabilized above the breakout point and is now striving for new highs.
➖ A surge in trading volume suggests that buyers are currently showing significant interest.

◉ Revenue & Profit Analysis

● Year-on-year

➖ In the fiscal year 2023, revenue experienced a significant increase of 20.4%, amounting to $482.4 million, compared to $401.9 million in fiscal year 2022.
➖ However, EBITDA faced a downturn, decreasing to $108.3 million in FY23 from $113.9 million in FY22.
➖ The EBITDA margin also saw a reduction, falling to 22.46% from 28.34% in FY22.
➖ Moreover, diluted earnings per share (EPS) rose by 8% year-over-year, climbing to $0.94 in FY23, up from $0.87 in FY22.

**While the growth in EBITDA might raise some concerns, it's crucial to acknowledge that the company is heavily investing in its research and development sector, and this investment has seen substantial increases over the years.

● Quarter-on-quarter

➖ In the most recent June quarter, the company reached an impressive achievement, with quarterly sales hitting a record high of $163.8 million. This represents a 12% increase from the $146.8 million reported in the March quarter and a substantial 39% growth compared to $117.7 million in the corresponding quarter of the previous year.
➖ Additionally, EBITDA rose from $29.6 million to $36.2 million during the latest quarter.

◉ Valuation

◉ PE Ratio

● PE vs Median PE
➖ Corcept Therapeutics sustained a median price-to-earnings ratio of 19.7x from December 2019 to 2023.
➖ Presently, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 35.3x, the stock seems to be relatively expensive.

● PE vs. Peers PE

➖ CORT's Price-To-Earnings Ratio stands at 35.3x, making it quite pricey when compared to the average of its peers, which is only 13.6x.

● PE vs. Industry PE

➖ CORT's valuation seems high, as it has a Price-To-Earnings Ratio of 35.3x, which is considerably above the US Pharmaceuticals industry average of 19x.

◉ PB Ratio

● PB vs. Peers PB

➖ The current price-to-book (P/B) ratio suggests that the stock is slightly undervalued, sitting at 7.4x compared to the peer average of 10.8x.
➖ However, it's important to note that a P/B ratio of 7.4x is typically seen as significantly overvalued.

● PB vs. Industry PB

➖ When we analyze the P/B ratio against the industry standard, CORT stands out as being notably overvalued, with its P/B ratio of 7.4x far exceeding the industry average of just 1.7x.

● PEG Ratio
➖ The stock currently seems to present a compelling investment opportunity, featuring a PEG ratio of 0.84.

◉ Cash Flow Analysis

➖ In FY23, operating cash flow increased to $127 million, compared to $120.3 million in FY22. However, it's essential to recognize that when examining the overall trend from FY19 to FY23, there has been a decline in cash flow from operations.

◉ Debt Analysis

➖ CORT operates without any debt, showcasing the robust financial health of the company.

◉ Top Shareholders

➖ Blackrock presently possesses a significant 15.8% ownership in this stock, while The Vanguard Group maintains approximately 9.1% stakes.

◉ Conclusion
Following a comprehensive examination of technical and fundamental metrics, our assessment indicates that Corcept Therapeutics possesses substantial growth potential within the US biotechnology sector. Notwithstanding elevated valuations, the company's increasing research and development expenditures demonstrate a strong commitment to its future prospects. Consequently, we consider Corcept Therapeutics a prudent investment choice at this juncture.