2/12/25 - $deck - LT entry yes, but i'm waiting...
2/12/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
DECK
LT entry yes, but i'm waiting...
- i've been thru the "shoes" names, obviously the 800 lb gorilla
NKE which remains way too expensive nearly 30x PE for negative growth in this environment, down to 
BIRD (which i no longer own bc it's just too nuanced/ complicated and not the right tape to clog up PnL w names) to everything in between.
- the in between we have stuff like
SKX, which probably does okay in a value driven world, but just pours and pours 
S in marketing (b/c the brand, frankly is just not too exciting and needs that push), we have onon... which is crushing things... and honestly continues to... but i can't do valuation anymore (i've been long this over the last years into prints)... to birk... again wrong tape and not cheap... crox... "cheap", throwing of tons of FCF, but brand and these partnerships are getting exhausted so growth is *maybe* +ve... but could even be -ve this year which the mkt doesn't forecast and would substantiate another leg lower if/when and i don't want to play that game.
- so there's deck.
- the reasonably priced (mid 20x PE, 3.5% fcf yield, high teens growing) name that is well managed group of cool brands.
- i'd consider this one, the top of the "I'd buy it first, bid comes in first" shoe stock.
- but again, we are facing industry headwinds where we pulled forward a ton of demand in 4Q (industry-wide), perhaps #s need to be re-adjusted ST for '25, and where valuation isn't "screaming cheap".
- i'd guess an entry here in the 150s is probably a great LT own. if i managed profession money again, my risk committee required position sizing, industry diversification stuff (you know - the things that keep you from making real coin if you're actually good and show up on time and do the work)... then yes, this would be actually, a place to build a position (maybe sell some C's in the 1H to generate yield on what might ultimately be an upside-capped stock.
- but tape is tough. i've written in a comment on
NXT today extensively about how i'm sizing, thinking about current environment, notably how i think lower inflation ST is actually risk -ve, not the opposite, how the mkt doesn't seem to care/ hold the same view (and ST anything's possible)... which just leads me to higher cash. more patience and let's see. i don't need another line on my PnL unless it competes on some orthogonal basis for better alpha vs. 
BTC (thru 
OBTC which is 10% discounted), NXT (energy), 
UBER (platform/ not tariff exposed), 
TSM (best "semi" growth/ mgns)... frankly we're just "not there" with DECK in the 150s.
- i'm allowed to have a greedy entry given the above, so i have an alert at the $150 gap fill (from the previous results gap up in late Oct '24), to look again to see if tape/ context has changed on thinking but realistically i'd like to see a 130s before i can get excited. if/ when we do get a risk dump, i think this gets bid first. i don't think there's much downside from that level and perhaps can leverage it up a bit.
but to each his or her :) own... just spelling it out for if/when i have the docs to support a quick decision and don't need to remember my thoughts. that's why i'm doing this all... documenting thinking for myself. if you find it useful, great. but this is just for me, ultimately :)
be well. stay solvent. stay patient. oppties every day.
V
DECKLT entry yes, but i'm waiting...
- i've been thru the "shoes" names, obviously the 800 lb gorilla
NKE which remains way too expensive nearly 30x PE for negative growth in this environment, down to BIRD (which i no longer own bc it's just too nuanced/ complicated and not the right tape to clog up PnL w names) to everything in between.- the in between we have stuff like
SKX, which probably does okay in a value driven world, but just pours and pours S in marketing (b/c the brand, frankly is just not too exciting and needs that push), we have onon... which is crushing things... and honestly continues to... but i can't do valuation anymore (i've been long this over the last years into prints)... to birk... again wrong tape and not cheap... crox... "cheap", throwing of tons of FCF, but brand and these partnerships are getting exhausted so growth is *maybe* +ve... but could even be -ve this year which the mkt doesn't forecast and would substantiate another leg lower if/when and i don't want to play that game.- so there's deck.
- the reasonably priced (mid 20x PE, 3.5% fcf yield, high teens growing) name that is well managed group of cool brands.
- i'd consider this one, the top of the "I'd buy it first, bid comes in first" shoe stock.
- but again, we are facing industry headwinds where we pulled forward a ton of demand in 4Q (industry-wide), perhaps #s need to be re-adjusted ST for '25, and where valuation isn't "screaming cheap".
- i'd guess an entry here in the 150s is probably a great LT own. if i managed profession money again, my risk committee required position sizing, industry diversification stuff (you know - the things that keep you from making real coin if you're actually good and show up on time and do the work)... then yes, this would be actually, a place to build a position (maybe sell some C's in the 1H to generate yield on what might ultimately be an upside-capped stock.
- but tape is tough. i've written in a comment on
NXT today extensively about how i'm sizing, thinking about current environment, notably how i think lower inflation ST is actually risk -ve, not the opposite, how the mkt doesn't seem to care/ hold the same view (and ST anything's possible)... which just leads me to higher cash. more patience and let's see. i don't need another line on my PnL unless it competes on some orthogonal basis for better alpha vs. BTC (thru OBTC which is 10% discounted), NXT (energy), UBER (platform/ not tariff exposed), TSM (best "semi" growth/ mgns)... frankly we're just "not there" with DECK in the 150s.- i'm allowed to have a greedy entry given the above, so i have an alert at the $150 gap fill (from the previous results gap up in late Oct '24), to look again to see if tape/ context has changed on thinking but realistically i'd like to see a 130s before i can get excited. if/ when we do get a risk dump, i think this gets bid first. i don't think there's much downside from that level and perhaps can leverage it up a bit.
but to each his or her :) own... just spelling it out for if/when i have the docs to support a quick decision and don't need to remember my thoughts. that's why i'm doing this all... documenting thinking for myself. if you find it useful, great. but this is just for me, ultimately :)
be well. stay solvent. stay patient. oppties every day.
V
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إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.