Entry point for DHI?

٢٠ نوفمبر ٢٠٢٤

I am certainly no expert and I would like others opinions on this one, as no ideas have been published on DHI for awhile.

Looking at the 1hr chart, it looks we are at a solid entry point on DHI. We are seeing a nice breakout from the trend over the last 30-days.

Based on the history this year, I would expect it to bounce from either the $158 low yesterday, or possibly fall a little more to $154 on Monday or Tuesday before reversing. There's solid support from Jan 18th and May 15th at $158. We have already seen this same pattern twice this year, and in those cases it dropped a little more before reversing. So, $154 seems reasonable. I am just waiting on confirmation before entering.

I suspect this will hit near or above $200 in the next two to three weeks, a 25% increase.

٥ ديسمبر ٢٠٢٤

تم فتح الصفقة

Made it through the first wave as expected, but will it drop under $160? A regression trend going back to May of 2022 shows it could bounce at $160. However, I suspect it will drop a little under $160, since it has dropped $5 under the trend line every time in the last nearly 3-years. There is also support at $158 and $154. So that is my best guess as to where it will bounce.

Based on the history this year and last year, I expect it will quickly rise $10+ once it bounces. So, I don't want to wait too long but I want to see some confirmation before entering.

Morning Star has DHIs fair-value at $141. But I think it will reach near or break over $200 in the next 3 months. We have seen a consistent 6-month cycle and we are at the start of a new cycle if the trend continues. Real estate certainly has seasonal patterns at the beginning of the year and the beginning of summer that align. But we can't predict what the fed will do with interest rates. However, I suspect it will be positive. Now that the election is over and a new administration is coming in January, I suspect it will prompt people to that have been waiting for the last few years, to start making a move... literally. If this works out and the 1+ year trend continues, we will see $200 in about 3 months.

I'll place my stop at maybe $151. Based on the trend, it looks like at that point, it would continue to fall to possibly $130, which would be a great entry point.

I am no expert, but I have been watching this one for a long time. Curious what others think.

١٠ ديسمبر ٢٠٢٤

ملاحظة

This might be the bottom. Just wanting on validation to see if it is going to go lower. If it fails, it could drop to the 130s. I suspect it will bounce from here. But some negative builder news recently might drive it lower.

١٣ ديسمبر ٢٠٢٤

ملاحظة

Looks like this bear trend is not just DHI, but all home builders. If you overlay KB, Lennar, Pulte, Toll Brothers, etc. over DHI, they are not following the same pattern right now.

It's hard to guess where it will bounce. So I am just waiting for a breakout and confirmation. It could be anywhere from $130 to $155 at this point.

١٦ ديسمبر ٢٠٢٤

ملاحظة

Monday, 12/16 - Looks to be getting a lot of sudden volume this morning.

I don't see an obvious line of resistance here with DHI, but I do see it will TOLL and other homebuilders. If you overlay TOLL, KB, PHM, LEN, NVR, and DHI, you will see that they all follow the same trends. Most of the others have a pretty solid resistance at this level. Since they tend to follow each other, seems like this could be a good point for a reversal. I am still waiting on confirmation, as it could still drop to the 130s.