Market to Breakout Up or Down?

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According to Edwards & Magee (1948), 75% of symmetrical-triangle breakouts continue the prior trend, which in this case is bullish! (1) And according to Kirkpatrick & Dahlquist (2010), 54% of symmetrical triangles in general breakout upwards. (2) So the odds seem favorable for bullish movement. However, it needs to start about right away, yet after this lousy week I have a nagging sense that it might breakout downhill.

(1) stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:symmetrical_triangle_continuation
(2) finvids.com/Chart-Pattern/Triangles

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ملاحظة

The coil is consolidating tighter and tighter...



Given this week will see an interest-rate hike, you have to be really optimistic to believe this coil won't break down. But maybe the hike will be less than expected and so we'll see a break up.

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It might be noteworthy that the downward drops occur faster than the upward recoveries. That implies that the bears are hitting with the greatest impulse, the hardest blows, and the bulls are struggling to recover. But the lows being progressively higher is a bullish sign.

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ملاحظة

Breaking down much?!