Is it time to question why you bought?

قبل ٣ أيام

I've made a series of bearish posts on crypto over the last months and had my fair share of feedback on what people are doing and expecting.

A lot of you can't be doing too well right now. Perhaps it's time to take another think through why you are doing this and is you're ready for the worst case outcomes.

This isn't a gloating post. Many of my peers get really nasty when they make money in shorts. Personally, I know if I'd decided to build my business in something other than trading - I'd have worked hard and be bleeding out that money right now. I'd 100% be a bull from a laymen perspective. I'd be buying things I consider reckless now.

I want to offer some insights into why you may have done this so as to give you some counter balance in your thinking on the subject.

For one, if you're in crypto alts, pretty good chance you've not done a lot of real analysis. Right? You liked the community, or you had a friend who was in it, you saw a Youtube video ...

Basically what happened was BTC went up a lot. You wanted to make that money. And the game changed in such a way that you can not make big gains in BTC so you got into the alts.

Right?

I imagine that's the case for many.

If so, it's time to consider the quality of the info you've gotten.

Does it come from the cycles?


Mathematically the idea of cycles is entirely nonsense. Such a repeatable cycle is also nonsense from a markets perspective. And all through this "Cycle" you've literally watched it fail. It's nonsense. BTC got higher faster. It's about 10K drop away from the core thesis failing (in absolutist terms) and there was no alt season.

Everything is down 50% during the time the idea was mass pimped by content creators (NOT TRADERS ....).

Is it Saylor?


Saylor is following the same playbook he used during the tech bubble. During 2000 and 2001 the whole thing entirely failed. The debt was converted to shares. Everyone was diluted and then the stock crashed over 90%.

It really didn't go so well before.

And have you listened to Saylor? Like, seriously? Anytime I see him he's talking about market dynamics and linking it with laws of science. The guy is troll or insane.

"What if BTC stops going up".

"Hahaha well what if water stops flowing downhill? I think physics solved that one for us".

.....WHAT!

If it all drops, Saylor will be deemed to have insane. Rambling on in metaphors that made no sense.

Is it the internet?

Is it the people talking about that? All those people, they can't all be wrong ... right?

Have you taken a moment to consider the quality of these people's analysis? Its ...lacking.

Have you noticed how childish and rude they are all the time? How they can not engage in a civilised adult debate on a topic? Do you think the fact 70% of their communication is in emojis and insults gives them a strong knowledge base to tell you how to make important decisions?

Have you been led to believe the future is known?

I see this all the time. People who appear to be complete noobs speaking with complete confidence about the absolutely certain future based on completely no substance.

This one is a really short point. Ignore people foolish enough to trick themself into thinking they know the future!



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I wish everyone well and hope my bear thesis is wrong.

But if I am right - the above will be the opinion of everyone once the mania has died.

قبل ٣ أيام

ملاحظة

I chose doge for this because in my time visiting different crypto communities I found doge to be the nicest with the people most worth trying to help.

Comments are generic.


Do you have a good reason for what you've done? Or has the mix of FOMO, peer pressure and big names tricked you into making a gamble you'd not have otherwise?

قبل ٣ أيام

ملاحظة

Here's real talk if you've got into anything like this based on people online.

Its 99.99999999999999999999999999999999999999$ sure you'd entirely ignore that person's advice on literally anything if you seen them acting the way they do in real life.

So why are you betting something as important as your savings on what they said on the internet?

Think about it.

قبل ٣ أيام

ملاحظة

If you're smart you learn very quickly in life to ignore people who never consider they might be wrong.

Because they might be wrong and if they are, they ensure they'll never ever know (At least in time).

But they're dumb. So they'll insist on telling you what is known.

This is triple relevant to markets.

أول أمس

ملاحظة

Other bull thesis' are also looking like they'll drop out.

The idea of a strategic reserve. Looks like it's being uniformly rejected with the reason, "We should not gamble with tax payer money".

Starting to look unlikely that will happen.

أول أمس

ملاحظة

El Salvador. No longer a buyer. It's not legal tender any more.

For all that was said, as soon as El Salvador needed to get some fiat from the IMF, they dropped the idea instantly.

أول أمس

ملاحظة

Then you have quite literally one of the most famous and influential people on the planet launching a meme coin ... and what happened?

Straight down 90%. Just like everything else.

Even when you back it with a president to be, it seems you can't pop up one of these things.

قبل ٨ ساعات

تم فتح الصفقة

Saylor's newest one is people should sell a kidney rather than selling BTC.

Troll, or insane.

I think we're setting up a crypto bounce now, FWIW - but all my points still stand. And I think it'll be a short the rip.