DXY: Is a Dollar Retracement on the Horizon?

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On Friday, the U.S. Dollar experienced a pullback after reaching yearly highs above 107.00. Market reactions to comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated a decline in the likelihood of a potential interest rate cut in December, now estimated at just 60%.

In economic news, retail sales saw a month-over-month increase of 0.4% in October, exceeding analysts' expectations. The dollar has now approached a significant supply zone established in September 2023, suggesting the potential for a price retracement.

The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals that retail investors remain strongly bullish, while other market participants appear to hold a more neutral to bearish stance. Additionally, seasonal trends indicate a bearish pattern that could persist until the end of January. With the dollar having recently rallied significantly, it is currently in an overbought state.

Despite the dollar's strength, all currencies correlated with the Dollar Index (DXY) continue to face pressure. However, the emergence of a potential reversal candlestick pattern could signal an impending retracement. We will monitor the U.S. dollar index closely for opportunities to enter on the bearish side.

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