DXY - Long time ago in a chart not so far away...
تم تحديثه
I would like to start this idea with an idea I posted nearly a year ago:
Most of us here are short term traders. Some are thinking in hours , some in days and a few in weeks.
The funds and banks are playing in months and years.
"It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I’ve known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying and selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine – that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn." J.L. Livermore
We must think in longer terms ...
Though the megaphone idea was a bit early it was one of the best trades during the last few months. Why is that important? DXY drives most of the currency markets and has a great effect on the precious metals.
1. The dollar has started a bear market - I think by now it's not a question anymore.
2. The intermediate cycle is right translated. We broke the previous ICL and completed the tag of the megaphone's lower trendline but there is no follow through... As I posted before the dollar decline is not going to be so simple as the rally was in 2014... There will be strong countertrend rallies, intermediate rallies. There is only one player the weak dollar is good for : USA. All the other nations will fight tooth and nails against it. The other players will use every possible chance to weaken their own currency...
3.So the time for the dollar bounce has arrived. Trump wants or not it will bounce and as it is the first bear market rally: it will be strong.
The minimum is the tag of the FIBO 23,6% but I'm quite sure we will reach the FIBO 38,2% at 95,94...
4. Only when this intermediate rally is completed will the dollar be ready to break down from the topping megaphone pattern.
The rally should last for minimum 3-4 weeks and maybe 2-3 months... But as you saw powers are you using the time against us so most probably this will be longer than anyone anticipates...
5. And if the dollar rallies gold most probably will not be able to print any rally in the rest of the year.
I'm starting to think the whole gold rally was just a manufactured move for banks to drop some gold on the market on the highest possible price with the help of the Trump email hysteria and Kim's nuclear games. If I'm right the answer is easy what they will be buying in the rest of the year: stocks...
Most of us here are short term traders. Some are thinking in hours , some in days and a few in weeks.
The funds and banks are playing in months and years.
"It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I’ve known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying and selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine – that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn." J.L. Livermore
We must think in longer terms ...
Though the megaphone idea was a bit early it was one of the best trades during the last few months. Why is that important? DXY drives most of the currency markets and has a great effect on the precious metals.
1. The dollar has started a bear market - I think by now it's not a question anymore.
2. The intermediate cycle is right translated. We broke the previous ICL and completed the tag of the megaphone's lower trendline but there is no follow through... As I posted before the dollar decline is not going to be so simple as the rally was in 2014... There will be strong countertrend rallies, intermediate rallies. There is only one player the weak dollar is good for : USA. All the other nations will fight tooth and nails against it. The other players will use every possible chance to weaken their own currency...
3.So the time for the dollar bounce has arrived. Trump wants or not it will bounce and as it is the first bear market rally: it will be strong.
The minimum is the tag of the FIBO 23,6% but I'm quite sure we will reach the FIBO 38,2% at 95,94...
4. Only when this intermediate rally is completed will the dollar be ready to break down from the topping megaphone pattern.
The rally should last for minimum 3-4 weeks and maybe 2-3 months... But as you saw powers are you using the time against us so most probably this will be longer than anyone anticipates...
5. And if the dollar rallies gold most probably will not be able to print any rally in the rest of the year.
I'm starting to think the whole gold rally was just a manufactured move for banks to drop some gold on the market on the highest possible price with the help of the Trump email hysteria and Kim's nuclear games. If I'm right the answer is easy what they will be buying in the rest of the year: stocks...
ملاحظة
ملاحظة
I call the dollar's ICL at 91.ملاحظة
If you short the dollar from today, keep in mind you are fighting the FED's unlimited buying power for weeks.
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