Bad News for USD Longs?

٢٢ فبراير

According to the US Dollar Index, dollar longs are under pressure. Despite still technically exhibiting an uptrend, there are signs of technical weakness emerging. Since topping at 104.97 in mid-February (just shy of resistance at 105.04), price action has tunnelled through support at 104.15 (now marked resistance) in addition to channel support, extended from the low of 100.62.

As you can see from the chart, buyers and sellers are now squaring off at the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) around 103.72 and fast approaching neighbouring support at 103.62. Adding to the bearish vibe, we can see that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) crossed under trendline support, taken from the low of 29.59, and also pushed through the 50.00 centreline, a move emphasising negative momentum.

Should sellers change gears here, therefore, and overthrow current supports, further underperformance could be on the table for the USD, targeting the 50-day SMA at 103.09 and support coming in at 102.92.

٢٧ فبراير

ملاحظة

Still watching this closely!

Dollar downside attempting to retake that 200-day SMA... A daily close beyond here and, of course, neighbouring support from 103.62 could still send the buck lower, IMHO - AH

٦ مارس

ملاحظة

Finally, a nice break of support from 103.62, with another layer of support now eyed at 102.90. AH

١٤ مارس

ملاحظة

With 102.92 now serving as resistance, further underperformance could still be seen for the buck towards that daily support base between 101.44/77 - AH