Another 48h - DXY (daily) Textbook-Rich W Reversal Formation
YESTERDAY I WAS AFFECTED, TRULY GROGGY
- I LAY IN BED ALL DAY - THAT`S WHY THERE WAS NO POST! SORRY ...
2024/10/26
Another 48h - DXY (daily) Textbook-Rich W Reversal Formation
“many us economic figures are due in the current calendar week!
will the DXY recovering? or bullish break out during the week?
If I'm not mistaken, I remember that it wasn't that long ago that the ECB was considered unlikely to cut interest rates in October! Or? Now many colleagues are asking themselves the question: big interest rate cut (0.5%)? Or just a normal interest rate cut (0.25%)? For a long time I asked myself: Why? And I came to the conclusion, which I don't want to hide from you, that Germany and/or France, the two largest economies, are weakening - and that without any discernible prospect of a turnaround. Not to mention the political class - which is also under more than enough under pressure! In France there is a conservative liberal minority government that cannot legally organize anything without the votes of right-wing nationalists, let alone left-wing greens and/or socialists. And here in Germany, in the current polls, our liberal green social democratic federal government has fewer votes than the Christian Democrats in the opposition. Just half of the votes, like the right-wing ones, here in my home country and/or country of birth, Germany.
Anyway, in the past calendar week, investors and traders traded the
DXY above our w formation for the first time again (during Wednesdays trading session as when Wall Street was open). Only within a few hours? But at least! Our learning-educated headline was: "One swallow doesn't make a summer!" And so during the following Thursday we had a very strong bearish selling day. In order to regain almost half of Thursday's loss on Friday. I don't want to scare you - but greed is back in the DXY . Which is proven by the fact that in the last 20 trading days, after the low, only 3 trading days ended in bearish red. The DXY has risen in 17 out of 20 trading days since the annual rise on Friday, September 27, 2024.
104.799 points - (2024/07/30) - July High Before Sell-Off
104.447 points - (2024/08/01) - High W-Formation
104.317 points - (2024/10/25) - last price action
103.820 points - (2017/01/03) - Historical Mid Term High
103.104 points - (2024/10/10) - High While Last Inflation Data
102.160 points - (2024/08/05) - Low W-Formation
These are the most important price actions for this week.
The bulls have to strive for 104.447 points, which is the W-Formation high, from 2024/08/01. And break out until 104.799 points, from 2024/07/30, which was the July high before the august sell-off. Because only when investors and/or traders are investing and/or even trading theDXY above 104.799 points can we argue in a scientifically verified, empirically provable way that we have broken out of the w formation in a bullish manner for the time being. Only above 104.799 points the bearish August sell-off has been resolved bullishly again - if you want. Will that happen this week? The week after next? The week of the US elections? That's not so important! The decisive factor for bulls is that the price action around it is not recaptured by the bears. Because with a price action between the w-formation, of 104.447 points and/or 102.160 bulls and/or bears can only argue, that we are since august`24 only in a sideway trend - admitted with a bearish false breakout to annual lows 2024. Until the rally described at the beginning of the last 20 days up to this weekend went as it did.
However, there is no important US data on Monday that is likely to have an impact on price action. But on Tuesday: JOLT's job openings. On Wednesday: GDP Annual Growth Rate. On Thursday: PCE Price Index YoY. And on Friday: US unemployment rate. Therefore, there is enough new and economic information to learn something new - to have what we already knew confirmed. By analyzing and evaluating their impact on the price action of theDXY .
Of course I don't know that either!
But in order to trade price action and/or invest in something, I always try to stick to George Soros' reflection theory. In which he tries to describe in his own words that the price action is a never-ending, ambivalent, negotiated interaction between all participants and/or observers involved. In which everyone's perception influences the price action - the price action influences everyone's perception. And I am currently assuming that this is due to the fact that the FED, with its monetary policy, currently appears to be defeating the inflation, even stagflation, triggered by fiscal policy. Clear? Even with regard to the US economic data, a good number does not mean a positive economic expectation, let alone an economic recovery. But the price action usually always anticipates something like this! Like all traders and/or investors? you not? That's it! And that's why this price action also makes sense from a fundamental economic and monetary policy point of view - at least currently. What will it be like in the future? Next month November 2024? This quarter of 2024? Next year 2025? I don't know also!
However, in the USA the political situation is escalating if you follow the US election campaign. But it's clearer - because of the 2 party system. And the US economy also seems to be growing out of US stagflation - that is, growth is higher than inflation again. Which is why there were critical voices for the first time about the FED saying that cutting interest rates by 0.5% was too low and too sharp. Which I deny - but I can absolutely understand the fear of inflation flaring up again and galloping away again, especially if unnecessary green subsidy policy drives prices up again if Harris wins.
What may also be interesting for theDXY is the fact that there were the most massive 
GC1! purchases in years before the US election last week! Clearly, traders and/or investors implicitly fear another left-wing green democratic rise in us inflation. First in the USA? And then again in our so-called West? Just like the last 4 years, after Trump! The fact that the BRICS countries celebrated and celebrated themselves - without most of the media in our so-called West reporting about it - may have driven up the DXY on the one hand and or also the GC1! on the other! Isn`t it? Come on?! And this, while it is now increasingly being stated in the mass media that it is becoming more and more likely that Trump could win the elections for the US Republicans? But I don't think so! But that is the decision of the US Americans - we will continue to monitor and evaluate the price action (either way) on a daily basis, to continue to learn something new, as we have hopefully done so far.
104.317 points - (2024/10/25) - last price action
103.805 points - (2024/10/25) - SMA #3 hl2 200
103.184 points - (2024/10/25) - SMA #2 hl2 100
102.901 points - (2024/10/25) - SMA #1 hl2 20
These trend lines confirm the current bullish sentiment inDXY .
All three - the short-term, the last 20 trading days. As well as the medium-term, the last 100 trading days. As well as the long-term of the last 200 trading days. Important for this current week, also due to the numerous US economic data - on Tuesday: JOLT's job openings, on Wednesday: GDP Annual Growth Rate, on Thursday: PCE Price Index YoY, and/or on Friday: US unemployment rate - is to confirm the breakout above the medium-term 100 trend line, which was exceeded last week. And/Or also confirm the long-term 200 trend line, which was exceeded the week before last. Although even a fall below, no broken leg, no panic, would be an impending breakout from the w formation. Because only if the price action is back below 103,104 points I would personally worry about theDXY as a bull. Because then we would be back to where we were when the last US inflation data was published.
With best wishes
and with good intentions!
Aaron
Another 48h - DXY ... is pure information material.
By trying to give you even more information about theDXY every day to make even better trading decisions (buy/sell or do nothing). The goal of each day is from my side that you say to yourself after reading my daily analysis (Another 48h - DXY ...): "I didn't notice that before!" Because then you have received new information; yes - maybe even learned something!? If, yes? Then give me a like - and continue reading tomorrow! Concrete 4XSetUps with entry price, target price and also stop price are available in the daily 4XSetUps...
- I LAY IN BED ALL DAY - THAT`S WHY THERE WAS NO POST! SORRY ...
2024/10/26
Another 48h - DXY (daily) Textbook-Rich W Reversal Formation
“many us economic figures are due in the current calendar week!
will the DXY recovering? or bullish break out during the week?
If I'm not mistaken, I remember that it wasn't that long ago that the ECB was considered unlikely to cut interest rates in October! Or? Now many colleagues are asking themselves the question: big interest rate cut (0.5%)? Or just a normal interest rate cut (0.25%)? For a long time I asked myself: Why? And I came to the conclusion, which I don't want to hide from you, that Germany and/or France, the two largest economies, are weakening - and that without any discernible prospect of a turnaround. Not to mention the political class - which is also under more than enough under pressure! In France there is a conservative liberal minority government that cannot legally organize anything without the votes of right-wing nationalists, let alone left-wing greens and/or socialists. And here in Germany, in the current polls, our liberal green social democratic federal government has fewer votes than the Christian Democrats in the opposition. Just half of the votes, like the right-wing ones, here in my home country and/or country of birth, Germany.
Anyway, in the past calendar week, investors and traders traded the
DXY above our w formation for the first time again (during Wednesdays trading session as when Wall Street was open). Only within a few hours? But at least! Our learning-educated headline was: "One swallow doesn't make a summer!" And so during the following Thursday we had a very strong bearish selling day. In order to regain almost half of Thursday's loss on Friday. I don't want to scare you - but greed is back in the DXY . Which is proven by the fact that in the last 20 trading days, after the low, only 3 trading days ended in bearish red. The DXY has risen in 17 out of 20 trading days since the annual rise on Friday, September 27, 2024.104.799 points - (2024/07/30) - July High Before Sell-Off
104.447 points - (2024/08/01) - High W-Formation
104.317 points - (2024/10/25) - last price action
103.820 points - (2017/01/03) - Historical Mid Term High
103.104 points - (2024/10/10) - High While Last Inflation Data
102.160 points - (2024/08/05) - Low W-Formation
These are the most important price actions for this week.
The bulls have to strive for 104.447 points, which is the W-Formation high, from 2024/08/01. And break out until 104.799 points, from 2024/07/30, which was the July high before the august sell-off. Because only when investors and/or traders are investing and/or even trading the
DXY above 104.799 points can we argue in a scientifically verified, empirically provable way that we have broken out of the w formation in a bullish manner for the time being. Only above 104.799 points the bearish August sell-off has been resolved bullishly again - if you want. Will that happen this week? The week after next? The week of the US elections? That's not so important! The decisive factor for bulls is that the price action around it is not recaptured by the bears. Because with a price action between the w-formation, of 104.447 points and/or 102.160 bulls and/or bears can only argue, that we are since august`24 only in a sideway trend - admitted with a bearish false breakout to annual lows 2024. Until the rally described at the beginning of the last 20 days up to this weekend went as it did.However, there is no important US data on Monday that is likely to have an impact on price action. But on Tuesday: JOLT's job openings. On Wednesday: GDP Annual Growth Rate. On Thursday: PCE Price Index YoY. And on Friday: US unemployment rate. Therefore, there is enough new and economic information to learn something new - to have what we already knew confirmed. By analyzing and evaluating their impact on the price action of the
DXY .“Start by assuming the market is always wrong, so if you copy everybody else on Wall Street, you’re doomed to do poorly.”
George Soros
- Why The W Formation Is The Way It Is?
- What Role Does The Feda Play In This W Formation?
- Is It Fundamentally Justified From An Economic Point Of View?
Of course I don't know that either!
But in order to trade price action and/or invest in something, I always try to stick to George Soros' reflection theory. In which he tries to describe in his own words that the price action is a never-ending, ambivalent, negotiated interaction between all participants and/or observers involved. In which everyone's perception influences the price action - the price action influences everyone's perception. And I am currently assuming that this is due to the fact that the FED, with its monetary policy, currently appears to be defeating the inflation, even stagflation, triggered by fiscal policy. Clear? Even with regard to the US economic data, a good number does not mean a positive economic expectation, let alone an economic recovery. But the price action usually always anticipates something like this! Like all traders and/or investors? you not? That's it! And that's why this price action also makes sense from a fundamental economic and monetary policy point of view - at least currently. What will it be like in the future? Next month November 2024? This quarter of 2024? Next year 2025? I don't know also!
However, in the USA the political situation is escalating if you follow the US election campaign. But it's clearer - because of the 2 party system. And the US economy also seems to be growing out of US stagflation - that is, growth is higher than inflation again. Which is why there were critical voices for the first time about the FED saying that cutting interest rates by 0.5% was too low and too sharp. Which I deny - but I can absolutely understand the fear of inflation flaring up again and galloping away again, especially if unnecessary green subsidy policy drives prices up again if Harris wins.
What may also be interesting for the
DXY is the fact that there were the most massive GC1! purchases in years before the US election last week! Clearly, traders and/or investors implicitly fear another left-wing green democratic rise in us inflation. First in the USA? And then again in our so-called West? Just like the last 4 years, after Trump! The fact that the BRICS countries celebrated and celebrated themselves - without most of the media in our so-called West reporting about it - may have driven up the DXY on the one hand and or also the GC1! on the other! Isn`t it? Come on?! And this, while it is now increasingly being stated in the mass media that it is becoming more and more likely that Trump could win the elections for the US Republicans? But I don't think so! But that is the decision of the US Americans - we will continue to monitor and evaluate the price action (either way) on a daily basis, to continue to learn something new, as we have hopefully done so far.104.317 points - (2024/10/25) - last price action
103.805 points - (2024/10/25) - SMA #3 hl2 200
103.184 points - (2024/10/25) - SMA #2 hl2 100
102.901 points - (2024/10/25) - SMA #1 hl2 20
These trend lines confirm the current bullish sentiment in
DXY .All three - the short-term, the last 20 trading days. As well as the medium-term, the last 100 trading days. As well as the long-term of the last 200 trading days. Important for this current week, also due to the numerous US economic data - on Tuesday: JOLT's job openings, on Wednesday: GDP Annual Growth Rate, on Thursday: PCE Price Index YoY, and/or on Friday: US unemployment rate - is to confirm the breakout above the medium-term 100 trend line, which was exceeded last week. And/Or also confirm the long-term 200 trend line, which was exceeded the week before last. Although even a fall below, no broken leg, no panic, would be an impending breakout from the w formation. Because only if the price action is back below 103,104 points I would personally worry about the
DXY as a bull. Because then we would be back to where we were when the last US inflation data was published.With best wishes
and with good intentions!
Aaron
Another 48h - DXY ... is pure information material.
By trying to give you even more information about the
DXY every day to make even better trading decisions (buy/sell or do nothing). The goal of each day is from my side that you say to yourself after reading my daily analysis (Another 48h - DXY ...): "I didn't notice that before!" Because then you have received new information; yes - maybe even learned something!? If, yes? Then give me a like - and continue reading tomorrow! Concrete 4XSetUps with entry price, target price and also stop price are available in the daily 4XSetUps...
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