DXY Macro View 25/02 - H&S?
NAHB Housing Market Index rose two consecutive months after plunge over final months of 2018.
“Ongoing reduction in mortgage rates in recent weeks coupled with continued strength in the job market are helping to fuel builder sentiment,” said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel.
The NAHB index gauges builders’ perception of present sales and future activity over the next six months, providing some degree of survey evidence for a housing market upturn.
FOMC Meeting Minutes shows that shrinkage of balance sheet likely to stop at end 2019 and starting next year 2020, expect balance sheet to start growing organically again.
Durable goods order report delayed by 27 days due to the US government shutdown. It rose to 1.2% in December and a revision to November’s increase. Core Durable Goods Orders was down another 0.7% in December and has now fallen in four out of the past five months.
The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index plunged 21.1 points to contraction. But ISM Manufacturing PMI still a consistent expansion. “The factory sector still looks to be growing, but at the weakest pace in roughly two years,” from Empire survey.
Existing Home Sales fell 1.2% to 4.94million-unit pace in January. Winter months are difficult to interpret due to large seasonal factor, home buying activity continues to trend lower. The partial government shutdown likely had little impact on January sales, but delays in the mortgage underwriting process may slightly weigh on sales in coming months.
DXY chart past week resisted breaking down through 96.40 levels. H&S should seem to be formed but watching out level to break through bottle neck. A downward move might see to 96.00 levels progression or bounce off bottle neck levels and breaks 96.70 levels to 97.25 levels going forward.
Indicators:
Parabolic SAR – Bullish
MACD – Turning Bearish
Stochastic – Moving towards oversold
Overall - 2/3 - Bearish
Disclaimer:
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
“Ongoing reduction in mortgage rates in recent weeks coupled with continued strength in the job market are helping to fuel builder sentiment,” said NAHB Chairman Randy Noel.
The NAHB index gauges builders’ perception of present sales and future activity over the next six months, providing some degree of survey evidence for a housing market upturn.
FOMC Meeting Minutes shows that shrinkage of balance sheet likely to stop at end 2019 and starting next year 2020, expect balance sheet to start growing organically again.
Durable goods order report delayed by 27 days due to the US government shutdown. It rose to 1.2% in December and a revision to November’s increase. Core Durable Goods Orders was down another 0.7% in December and has now fallen in four out of the past five months.
The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index plunged 21.1 points to contraction. But ISM Manufacturing PMI still a consistent expansion. “The factory sector still looks to be growing, but at the weakest pace in roughly two years,” from Empire survey.
Existing Home Sales fell 1.2% to 4.94million-unit pace in January. Winter months are difficult to interpret due to large seasonal factor, home buying activity continues to trend lower. The partial government shutdown likely had little impact on January sales, but delays in the mortgage underwriting process may slightly weigh on sales in coming months.
DXY chart past week resisted breaking down through 96.40 levels. H&S should seem to be formed but watching out level to break through bottle neck. A downward move might see to 96.00 levels progression or bounce off bottle neck levels and breaks 96.70 levels to 97.25 levels going forward.
Indicators:
Parabolic SAR – Bullish
MACD – Turning Bearish
Stochastic – Moving towards oversold
Overall - 2/3 - Bearish
Disclaimer:
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained in this content is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ForexBriefcase will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
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