موشر الدولار الأمريكيتم تحديثه DXY, Rate & Equity price
DXY price(P) is decided by D & S.
Now the rate(R) is 1.75, suppose D=S,
1.when R not changed, P is up, means, D is up, S should increase, in order to keep the balance;
2.when P decreased, R not changed, D is down, S should also down, if S keeps up, that means the Equity price may have bubble;
3.when R is down, but P increased, D is up, S should be cut, if S keeps up, that also means it will got the same result as 2.
.... And so on, that's only my analysis, maybe it is wrong.
The difficulty is that the said "Balance" is not fixed, it is hard to judge. Meanwhile, when the central bank uses the rate to control the inflation. That will also lead to break the balance sometimes.
Now the rate(R) is 1.75, suppose D=S,
1.when R not changed, P is up, means, D is up, S should increase, in order to keep the balance;
2.when P decreased, R not changed, D is down, S should also down, if S keeps up, that means the Equity price may have bubble;
3.when R is down, but P increased, D is up, S should be cut, if S keeps up, that also means it will got the same result as 2.
.... And so on, that's only my analysis, maybe it is wrong.
The difficulty is that the said "Balance" is not fixed, it is hard to judge. Meanwhile, when the central bank uses the rate to control the inflation. That will also lead to break the balance sometimes.
ملاحظة
In the updated chart, I'm trying to use the logic to explain the 1970~80's stagflation.invst.ly/pjz3-
ملاحظة
Look to the futureinvst.ly/pjzsq
ملاحظة
Are we in a Malthusian Trap now? low birth, low death and low economic growth...ملاحظة
update for DXY 240M chartملاحظة
Let Dollar only for the US.,block-chain will finally take the place in worldwide tradings...ملاحظة
ملاحظة
EURUSD 30M chartملاحظة
Nas100They continues to buy till Apr. It's now moving in an expanding wedge and likely in wave w~z structure.
ملاحظة
Blockchain in support of the UN SDGs was held by BAI and UN in NYC on Jan. 15,2020.ملاحظة
Nowadays, it shows more and more disadvantage in using the USD for international trades, and think of the huge US debts... As a lawful currency of the US, it's ok, but not suitable for the worlds.ملاحظة
Nowadays, it shows more and more disadvantage in using the USD for international trades, and think of the huge US debts... As a lawful currency of the US, it's ok for the US ONLY, but not suitable for the worlds.ملاحظة
update for NAS100ملاحظة
update for EUملاحظة
ملاحظة
EURUSDThe gap in Y2017 was closed!
ximalaya.com/keji/4156778/247692900
ملاحظة
ملاحظة
DXYملاحظة
EURCNHملاحظة
EURUSDnow it hit the channel border
tradingview.com/x/Fo2gWFth/r
ملاحظة
ملاحظة
DXYملاحظة
NAS100 dropped 15% after new high on Feb 20ملاحظة
US30 dropped 14.5%, after new high on Feb 12ملاحظة
DXY also topped on Feb.20, Nasdaq is more like a game of dollar.ملاحظة
EURUSDملاحظة
DXYملاحظة
DXY flowed to the equities for a long term and built the bullish market, it is like a Eden of few ppl. But now comes the N-cov., the problems of M supply imbalance is now intensified. That is why the rate cut this time will bring little help to the market.ملاحظة
let's watch the inflation in the following months.ملاحظة
EURUSDShort term tp hit perfectly
ملاحظة
ملاحظة
USDCNH, watch itملاحظة
From my earlier chart, as the rate is going down, and the supply for DXY is still moving up, however the demand is also moving up, that means a possible liquidity trap is forming. Plus high increasing debts, think what will happen next....ملاحظة
FED lowered the target range for interest rate by 100bps to 0-0.25 percent and launched a massive $700 billion QE program during an emergency move on Mar. 15th to protect the US economy from the effects of the coronavirus.ملاحظة
Oil price race is a business competition for a simple business purpose, but triggered the hiding debt crisis, plus the con-virus effect, bringing the debt deflation.Compare of the two significant oil price race in history,
In 1970's the price race was cutting the capacity to higher the price, and at that time US was suffering the stagflation.
However this time it is increasing the capacity to lower the price, and now there's potential a great depression caused by the debt deflation.
ملاحظة
ملاحظة
Isn't it the Great Recession?High Debt with high unemployment, but low inflation and zero rate...
Let's see how's the inflation rate to be announced
on Apr.10. Will it be under 2.0?
Fay Lee
Apr.9
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.
إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.