SP500 Charting: 2016 US Elections vs 2020

٢ نوفمبر ٢٠٢٠

During my regular weekend charting I was looking at the SP500 and compared current development to 2016 US elections when stocks turned up aggressively higher. But before market resumed higher we saw a top in August then retracement followed by a bounce after three leg correction. This time, I see very similar development, which can be the case if Trump wins. In such case we should watch 3k. However, I am worried that coronavirus may actually "steal" the move, and take a deeper pullback or cause ongoing consolidation if number of cases will continue to rise with upcoming lock-downs like in EU. Even if Trump wins and cases go up, he will be forced to take actions.

Be careful this week, because it's not only the US elections, also plenty of other events and data, such as RBA and BOE rates, US ISM PMI, FOMC statement and even NFP on Friday.