ES daily 03/15: market will bottom soon
ES dropped further down last night to make a double bottom around 4130 range. It is a slightly lower low than Mar 8 low and right in the minimum target range of (v) of (5) of (C), so technically that could be finished and we could go higher from here. However, there are a few things that still got me cautious on the bullish side for now. First of all, we rallied about 130 points from overnight low, which is not enough to confirm the bottom. If you are not sure about this, check the rally in Mar 8 and Mar 9, both are within this range, and both cases got reversal immediately.
We will have Fed meeting tomorrow, and most likely the first rate increase would be announced on this meeting, and it should be a 0.25% increase. From this point, I would tend to think tomorrow is a buy the news event. But in reality, market participants will digest more on what would happen next, which different people have completely different guesses. So I would think tomorrow is a wild card, could see wild swing after the question session starts. There are a few patterns for the rest of week. Whatever direction tomorrow picks, there is quite high chance that majority or even all of the movement will be totally reversed in tomorrow night/Thursday. Also Friday is quad witching day, which is a very bearish biased day based on last year record. Based on these information, I think we may or may not see the final push to 4000 range in the rest of week, but if we indeed found the bottom, I tend to think the real sustained rally has to wait until next week to start.
As I mentioned in one of the daily ideas past few days, we are already 2.5 months into this pullback, and hit about 15% pullback. Timing wise, we should be very close to a bottom that could lasts weeks or even months. Maybe I am too bearish biased, but I still want to see us going down to ideal target of (c) wave which is 4000~4050 range next. It could start tomorrow after the meeting, but it could also start Thurs/Friday. This is bears last possible push in my opinion.
We will have Fed meeting tomorrow, and most likely the first rate increase would be announced on this meeting, and it should be a 0.25% increase. From this point, I would tend to think tomorrow is a buy the news event. But in reality, market participants will digest more on what would happen next, which different people have completely different guesses. So I would think tomorrow is a wild card, could see wild swing after the question session starts. There are a few patterns for the rest of week. Whatever direction tomorrow picks, there is quite high chance that majority or even all of the movement will be totally reversed in tomorrow night/Thursday. Also Friday is quad witching day, which is a very bearish biased day based on last year record. Based on these information, I think we may or may not see the final push to 4000 range in the rest of week, but if we indeed found the bottom, I tend to think the real sustained rally has to wait until next week to start.
As I mentioned in one of the daily ideas past few days, we are already 2.5 months into this pullback, and hit about 15% pullback. Timing wise, we should be very close to a bottom that could lasts weeks or even months. Maybe I am too bearish biased, but I still want to see us going down to ideal target of (c) wave which is 4000~4050 range next. It could start tomorrow after the meeting, but it could also start Thurs/Friday. This is bears last possible push in my opinion.
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