SP500 Weekly Forecast Analysis 28 Nov-2 Dec 2022

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SP500 Weekly Forecast Analysis 28 Nov-2 Dec 2022

We can see that this week, the current implied volatility is around 2.85% , down from 3.06% of last week.
According to ATR calculations, we are currently on the 63th percentile, while with VIX we are on 29th percentile.
Based on this data, we can expect on average, the movement from open to close of the weekly candle to be :
In case of bullish - 2.9%
In case of bearish - 2.56%

With the current IV calculation, we have currently 24.3% that the close of the weekly candle is going to finish either above
or below the next channel:
TOP: 4143
BOT: 3897

At the same time, taking into consideration the high/low touch calculation from the previous values, we can expect for this week:
26% chance that we are going to touch the previous low of the weekly candle of 3936
79% chance that we are going to touch the previous high of the weekly candle of 4050

Lastly from a technical analysis point of view, currently 26% of the moving averages rating, are insinuating we are in a BULLISH trend.