The Setup, More than NVDA
E-mini S&P (September) / E-mini NQ (September)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled 5637.00, down 15.00
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 19,591.25, down 199.25
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures consolidated lower on Monday in a healthy manner. Despite a dovish Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole Friday and bursts of strength across the indices in response to his tone, nothing really changed; the odds of three and four rate cuts this year have not budged, and the market is essentially right back into range. In addition, our opinion is little changed; the CME’s FedWatch Tool signaling 100bps worth of cuts through yearend at a 70.5% probability is overzealous and the rebound from the August 5th volatility event is too clean. Most of our readers are familiar with our style, so for those of you who are not, we are rarely negative on the stock market, but right here, right now, outside of one binary factor (NVDA earnings), we believe the risks are skewed to the downside as those probabilities are to be reined in and volatility will have a gasp at the least.
Yesterday’s opening bell range in the E-mini S&P was a classic stop sweep, trading to a new swing high of 5669, just shy of our major three-star level at 5672.75, before reversing 40 points. We now have major three-star resistance at 5669-5672.75 and a new line in the sand in which a close above will reinvigorate bullish tailwinds. Remember, we still have a critical line in the sand for the E-mini NQ at 19,925. With some early weakness, the most crucial level for each the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ comes in at 5599.25-5603.25 and 19,462-19,495, where a break below is likely to invite heavy waves of selling.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 5637-5646.50***, 5652.50-5655.25**, 5661.75-5665.25**, 5669-5672.75***, 5717.25-5721.25****
Pivot: 5631
Support: 5618.50-5624***, 5614.25**, 5599.25-5603.25****, 5593.25-5594.50***, 5573.50-5582.75***, 5558.50-5560.25**, 5547.50-5551.75***, 5526.75-5536.50***
NQ (September)
Resistance: 19,643**, 19,680-19,705**, 19,783-19,801***, 19,832-19,867***, 19,904-19,925****, 19,981-19,995*, 20,025-20,085**, 20,150-20,180***, 20,355-20,371**
Pivot: 19,578-19,618
Support: 19,514-19,544**, 19,462-19,495***, 19,394**
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: tradingview.com/cme/
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled 5637.00, down 15.00
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 19,591.25, down 199.25
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures consolidated lower on Monday in a healthy manner. Despite a dovish Fed Chair Powell at Jackson Hole Friday and bursts of strength across the indices in response to his tone, nothing really changed; the odds of three and four rate cuts this year have not budged, and the market is essentially right back into range. In addition, our opinion is little changed; the CME’s FedWatch Tool signaling 100bps worth of cuts through yearend at a 70.5% probability is overzealous and the rebound from the August 5th volatility event is too clean. Most of our readers are familiar with our style, so for those of you who are not, we are rarely negative on the stock market, but right here, right now, outside of one binary factor (NVDA earnings), we believe the risks are skewed to the downside as those probabilities are to be reined in and volatility will have a gasp at the least.
Yesterday’s opening bell range in the E-mini S&P was a classic stop sweep, trading to a new swing high of 5669, just shy of our major three-star level at 5672.75, before reversing 40 points. We now have major three-star resistance at 5669-5672.75 and a new line in the sand in which a close above will reinvigorate bullish tailwinds. Remember, we still have a critical line in the sand for the E-mini NQ at 19,925. With some early weakness, the most crucial level for each the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ comes in at 5599.25-5603.25 and 19,462-19,495, where a break below is likely to invite heavy waves of selling.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 5637-5646.50***, 5652.50-5655.25**, 5661.75-5665.25**, 5669-5672.75***, 5717.25-5721.25****
Pivot: 5631
Support: 5618.50-5624***, 5614.25**, 5599.25-5603.25****, 5593.25-5594.50***, 5573.50-5582.75***, 5558.50-5560.25**, 5547.50-5551.75***, 5526.75-5536.50***
NQ (September)
Resistance: 19,643**, 19,680-19,705**, 19,783-19,801***, 19,832-19,867***, 19,904-19,925****, 19,981-19,995*, 20,025-20,085**, 20,150-20,180***, 20,355-20,371**
Pivot: 19,578-19,618
Support: 19,514-19,544**, 19,462-19,495***, 19,394**
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: tradingview.com/cme/
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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