Head and Shoulders/Double Top Formed, Bloody Monday Locked In
تم تحديثه
I'm pretty new to this stuff, although I've had luck the last few weeks putting my money where my mouth is so I'll try to share insights. Any feedback would be greatly appreciated. Please trade at your own risk as I don't have a crystal ball.
I recognize many will suggest futures don't matter as much as during high liquidity trading times, but if we have a major selloff that would definitely matter. Oil futures will drive S&P 500 futures down Sunday night as we see early reactions to the news.
Fundamentals:
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The main driver behind this prediction is fundamentals and news coverage. As of this moment, oil prices are expected to tank Monday due to a major disappointment around a supposed meeting between Saudis and Russians to reduce production. Also, since the last bottom the situation with coronavirus has become much more dire. I personally expected this to pass much quicker, but with the extension of the lock down and worse than expected unemployment numbers it seems clear that earnings must take a worse hit than expected as well. Oil will be the fuse that lights the bomb Monday, but the gunpowder is the economic fundamentals caused by coronavirus.
Technicals:
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- Stocks failed to reach the large downtrend line last week showing great weakness.
- Head and shoulders (or double top depending on how you tilt your head ;) ). Either way the neckline is very exposed. We went up quick, we will probably go down quick since the market tends to like symmetry.
- A new downtrend channel is formed, but could just be a descending triangle. If oil causes a limit down Sunday this descending triangle will be obliterated and a sharper downtrend will be formed to provide resistance.
*Disclaimer: I am short on the market and oil*
I recognize many will suggest futures don't matter as much as during high liquidity trading times, but if we have a major selloff that would definitely matter. Oil futures will drive S&P 500 futures down Sunday night as we see early reactions to the news.
Fundamentals:
------------------
The main driver behind this prediction is fundamentals and news coverage. As of this moment, oil prices are expected to tank Monday due to a major disappointment around a supposed meeting between Saudis and Russians to reduce production. Also, since the last bottom the situation with coronavirus has become much more dire. I personally expected this to pass much quicker, but with the extension of the lock down and worse than expected unemployment numbers it seems clear that earnings must take a worse hit than expected as well. Oil will be the fuse that lights the bomb Monday, but the gunpowder is the economic fundamentals caused by coronavirus.
Technicals:
--------------
- Stocks failed to reach the large downtrend line last week showing great weakness.
- Head and shoulders (or double top depending on how you tilt your head ;) ). Either way the neckline is very exposed. We went up quick, we will probably go down quick since the market tends to like symmetry.
- A new downtrend channel is formed, but could just be a descending triangle. If oil causes a limit down Sunday this descending triangle will be obliterated and a sharper downtrend will be formed to provide resistance.
*Disclaimer: I am short on the market and oil*
ملاحظة
Reading the news, it does seem like there is more uncertainty around oil price movement Monday. It's going to be interesting...ملاحظة
Wow, crazy price action with oil down 7% and SP500 up 1.5%. Mind blown... We'll see if it stays like this.ملاحظة
Yep, ouch, didn't go like I hoped. Broke upward through descending triangle. Looks bullish short term.ملاحظة
Almost looks like worth buying calls tomorrow as insane as that might be just for the short term.ملاحظة
Well I done f***ed up.
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