SPX500 / ES - The Faint of Heart Shall Have Fainting Hearts
تم تحديثه
The truth is that a difficult market will forge a trader (assuming you stay solvent, lol), whereas markets like the 2020-2021 bull run, which everyone so desires to reappear, do not. There is nothing to achieve by buying calls at literally any point, whether high or low, and watching it immediately turn green and run for days.
Of course, a lot of people still lost money buying the top and paper handing the retraces or being on short expiry OTM calls, but a gambler is a gambler and a professional is a professional.
This market is really hard to trade because it's not trending. It's still seek and destroy, and with a lot of psychological manipulation. All the sirens sing recession. All the wolves howl the Federal Reserve isn't going to pivot. Then YEN-USD is going to 250. WTI is going to $3,000. The UK is going to turn into Nigeria. Credit Suisse, which is already $3, is going to 50 cents and that's really scary "OMG it's Bear Sterns," wow this smells and looks like 2008, hah, hah! etc, etc.
The reality is that October has already made a new 2022 low, and after September already made a new 2022 low, and frankly, we're not done making 2022 lows quite yet.
But the truth is also that very few people understand how much of a problem it will be for what I dub the Eighth Communist International, more commonly known as the Democratic Socialists of America/Neoconservative-captained NATO bloc, to have the U.S. equities market crash before it is time to roll out the One World Central Bank Digital Currency, which will incorporate the notorious Chinese Communist Party's heinous social credit and "Zero-COVID" schema.
The reason you have never seen the US equities markets actually crash is this reason. The 2008 and 2020 crashes were called stop raids and buying opportunities.
The US equities markets have really never seen a bear market. You're still not in a bear market. You're just in the retracement of the greatest bull run the most ridiculously resilient stock market has ever seen.
To business: I believe that we will see SPX and Nasdaq both run, or at least bounce, their pre-COVID highs, because Dow already did in both June and September and October:
And where one goes the other two seem to like to play Monkey See, Monkey Do.
However, 3,000 SPX is a bit too much of a fall at present, to be honest, so I have my eyes on SPX following what Dow did in June, which is to bounce off the pre-COVID high around 3,400.
Note that next FOMC rate hike is Nov. 2, a Wednesday, and Timraios from WSJ, who is more or less JPow's unofficial spokesperson, has already said 75bps is inbound.
Note that last FOMC everyone and their vegetable crisper knew that 75 bps was en route and we still ate a massive 200 point down day that set off a formidable and sustained dump.
Note that the US midterm elections are Nov. 8 and that markets have often bounced afterwards and that it's likely that a Republican "Red Wave" will be regarded as bullish in terms of how the narrative is spun.
After all, the Neocons are, like, business people, or something.
But before we get there, this previous week's price action makes it clear, in my opinion, that before FOMC we are going to take the 3,820 mark and set a new October high. The question will be, then, can one go short, or do we get pushed even higher back to the 4030 range?
What will be tricky is if it lingers in the 38xx-39xx range until FOMC and the the FOMC manipulation wick is all the way into 4,000.
I really do not believe that we are going to see the SPX lose a thousand more points in 2022. I think we will see numbers like that occur when the problems between the Russian Federation and NATO exacerbate further. Russia is unable to back down from the war and NATO and DC cannot back down from the war. What lies ahead is a nuclear or biological conflict, for real.
The war is only going to end when there is a winner between the two, or more accurately, when Heaven settles our problems for us with a real disaster.
I also do not believe that the markets will crash at the Federal Reserve or the Biden Administration's hand. That will be terrible politically and will cause a lot of problems for the 8th Comintern on the global stage, so it will be arranged instead that the market crash necessary for the installation of global Communist social credit/CBDC is predicated on the back of a disaster that we will probably be told to blame Putin/Xi for, one that technocracy will be purported to save our very lives from.
But in the meantime I also do not believe that we have seen the 2022 bottom. I think there's a BIG Q4 rally en route wherein Nasdaq goes totally apeshit while energy stocks, oil, natural gas, and defense contractors dump, because the real problems are in 2023.
If you understand why the markets will do this, you will understand how if it unfolds as I have said, it is a Level 99 Red Alert. A real Level 99 Red Alert.
If this society makes it through to 2024, that will really be something.
The problems that lie ahead are that dire.
What I want to see and expect to see before that Q4 rally occurs is a "bullish breaker" that takes out the October low. A real likely candidate for how that unfolds is for it to occur in early November, arguably on the back of dovish news from FOMC, with November as a month ending up forming an outside bar that leads into a December and January mega rally.
If you do puts above 3,850 you should buy them with a lot of time on the contract and be prepared to have to average down. It may be worth hedging spot long with a liberal stop and a total willingness to abandon a green long early.
Apple needs to make a new low before you can put on your rally hats, but the manipulation is coming both ways so that you'll be scared to be long when you need to be long and will be scared to be short when you need to be short.
One last thing: Xi Jinping had his predecessor Hu Jintao removed from the Chinese Communist Party's summit today, Twitter says. No matter what Wall Street and Comintern 8 have planned, when the CCP falls, SPX is losing 1,000 points that day because it isn't on anyone's schedule.
Be careful. Danger abounds and this can end at any time.
Of course, a lot of people still lost money buying the top and paper handing the retraces or being on short expiry OTM calls, but a gambler is a gambler and a professional is a professional.
This market is really hard to trade because it's not trending. It's still seek and destroy, and with a lot of psychological manipulation. All the sirens sing recession. All the wolves howl the Federal Reserve isn't going to pivot. Then YEN-USD is going to 250. WTI is going to $3,000. The UK is going to turn into Nigeria. Credit Suisse, which is already $3, is going to 50 cents and that's really scary "OMG it's Bear Sterns," wow this smells and looks like 2008, hah, hah! etc, etc.
The reality is that October has already made a new 2022 low, and after September already made a new 2022 low, and frankly, we're not done making 2022 lows quite yet.
But the truth is also that very few people understand how much of a problem it will be for what I dub the Eighth Communist International, more commonly known as the Democratic Socialists of America/Neoconservative-captained NATO bloc, to have the U.S. equities market crash before it is time to roll out the One World Central Bank Digital Currency, which will incorporate the notorious Chinese Communist Party's heinous social credit and "Zero-COVID" schema.
The reason you have never seen the US equities markets actually crash is this reason. The 2008 and 2020 crashes were called stop raids and buying opportunities.
The US equities markets have really never seen a bear market. You're still not in a bear market. You're just in the retracement of the greatest bull run the most ridiculously resilient stock market has ever seen.
To business: I believe that we will see SPX and Nasdaq both run, or at least bounce, their pre-COVID highs, because Dow already did in both June and September and October:
And where one goes the other two seem to like to play Monkey See, Monkey Do.
However, 3,000 SPX is a bit too much of a fall at present, to be honest, so I have my eyes on SPX following what Dow did in June, which is to bounce off the pre-COVID high around 3,400.
Note that next FOMC rate hike is Nov. 2, a Wednesday, and Timraios from WSJ, who is more or less JPow's unofficial spokesperson, has already said 75bps is inbound.
Note that last FOMC everyone and their vegetable crisper knew that 75 bps was en route and we still ate a massive 200 point down day that set off a formidable and sustained dump.
Note that the US midterm elections are Nov. 8 and that markets have often bounced afterwards and that it's likely that a Republican "Red Wave" will be regarded as bullish in terms of how the narrative is spun.
After all, the Neocons are, like, business people, or something.
But before we get there, this previous week's price action makes it clear, in my opinion, that before FOMC we are going to take the 3,820 mark and set a new October high. The question will be, then, can one go short, or do we get pushed even higher back to the 4030 range?
What will be tricky is if it lingers in the 38xx-39xx range until FOMC and the the FOMC manipulation wick is all the way into 4,000.
I really do not believe that we are going to see the SPX lose a thousand more points in 2022. I think we will see numbers like that occur when the problems between the Russian Federation and NATO exacerbate further. Russia is unable to back down from the war and NATO and DC cannot back down from the war. What lies ahead is a nuclear or biological conflict, for real.
The war is only going to end when there is a winner between the two, or more accurately, when Heaven settles our problems for us with a real disaster.
I also do not believe that the markets will crash at the Federal Reserve or the Biden Administration's hand. That will be terrible politically and will cause a lot of problems for the 8th Comintern on the global stage, so it will be arranged instead that the market crash necessary for the installation of global Communist social credit/CBDC is predicated on the back of a disaster that we will probably be told to blame Putin/Xi for, one that technocracy will be purported to save our very lives from.
But in the meantime I also do not believe that we have seen the 2022 bottom. I think there's a BIG Q4 rally en route wherein Nasdaq goes totally apeshit while energy stocks, oil, natural gas, and defense contractors dump, because the real problems are in 2023.
If you understand why the markets will do this, you will understand how if it unfolds as I have said, it is a Level 99 Red Alert. A real Level 99 Red Alert.
If this society makes it through to 2024, that will really be something.
The problems that lie ahead are that dire.
What I want to see and expect to see before that Q4 rally occurs is a "bullish breaker" that takes out the October low. A real likely candidate for how that unfolds is for it to occur in early November, arguably on the back of dovish news from FOMC, with November as a month ending up forming an outside bar that leads into a December and January mega rally.
If you do puts above 3,850 you should buy them with a lot of time on the contract and be prepared to have to average down. It may be worth hedging spot long with a liberal stop and a total willingness to abandon a green long early.
Apple needs to make a new low before you can put on your rally hats, but the manipulation is coming both ways so that you'll be scared to be long when you need to be long and will be scared to be short when you need to be short.
One last thing: Xi Jinping had his predecessor Hu Jintao removed from the Chinese Communist Party's summit today, Twitter says. No matter what Wall Street and Comintern 8 have planned, when the CCP falls, SPX is losing 1,000 points that day because it isn't on anyone's schedule.
Be careful. Danger abounds and this can end at any time.
ملاحظة
This one is a toughy to trade. Assuming things are actually going to be bullish going into FOMC and elections, the most likely scenario to unfold is a dump into this boxI have major reservations we're going to see a new low in 2022. But my skepticism will have to be mulled as we watch what unfolds.
ملاحظة
It's a very tricky situation. SPX notably did not bother to retrace into a lower gap before its most recent move upwards, the most rational move.And at the same time where it traded to happened to be exactly equilibrium between the August high and the October low.
Based on how wild the Dow has been, trading above its September CPI pivot, I don't expect Nasdaq and SPX to be _this_ weak before the major correction I am expecting.
So what we could see is a run back under 3,700 before we see 4,000 and the post-election problems begin.
Nov. 8 elections are a buy the dip, sell the news event.
ملاحظة
Are the Nov. 8 elections a "sell the news" event? Since everyone likes to compare today to 2008, let's take a look.Obama's Nov. 4, 2008 win led to a one day 40 point rally, followed by an immediate 13 day 26.72% mega correction on the #SPX ES.
In today's terms this would be ~1,000 points down.
ملاحظة
For readers, here's a look at the UVIX 2x leveraged VIX ETF, just pennies away from the September CPI monster nuke candle gap.High chance for a retrace to range equilibrium @ $12 with a stop under the $8.50 low seems like a decent opportunity.
ملاحظة
Predictions for FOMC tomorrow:Yellow Arrow, Purple Arrow
1. Market dumps on either 6:15 AM ADP NFP or 12:00 rate release
2. J Pow jawboning is framed as Dovish and we pump it, and pump it again.
Dow will be middling, Nasdaq will be laggard.
On Friday we have full NFP. Tuesday next week is US elections and Thursday is next CPI print.
Probably ES 4,200 before Thursday.
Follow me on Twitter for more regular market banter.
ملاحظة
Not done dumping, but it won't last long.Imo ~3,720 is where you want to buy.
With what Dow just did, there's no way we're making new lows without SPX 4,000 first.
All this shows that MMs are still heavy on the buy side.
ملاحظة
Magic green box, check.Let's see what happens.
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