ES SPX weak w/ LHLL; seeking 3800-3700 in wedge move;what next?
SPX seems range bound by the 2 blue wedge lines (potentially ranging between 3900-4k or 1.272 to 1.414 Fib levels) Measurement of the previous wedge height says that SPX may go even overshoot the very strong & popular support at 3800.
3800 is a 21% correction @edge of a bear mkt & is also a 1.618 retracement of latest rally from 4129.50 to 4631 ATH. This level should be strong enough if we are not going into a bear market like Nasdaq did.
3800 may be the bottom of ABC correction.
Bear Market scenario:
If we are to enter a bear market, 3600 is a 25% drop to the Nov2020 vaccination launch which may may have started a secular bull market. Note that 3500 is 2.272 retracement.
Next support will be at 3400, a 30% drop to the 2.414 retracement level.
4Q 2022 will be very strong for SPX, probably retesting ATH at 4631. 3Q may be consolidation to digest the big crash & to set a new direction.
Not trading advice
3800 is a 21% correction @edge of a bear mkt & is also a 1.618 retracement of latest rally from 4129.50 to 4631 ATH. This level should be strong enough if we are not going into a bear market like Nasdaq did.
3800 may be the bottom of ABC correction.
Bear Market scenario:
If we are to enter a bear market, 3600 is a 25% drop to the Nov2020 vaccination launch which may may have started a secular bull market. Note that 3500 is 2.272 retracement.
Next support will be at 3400, a 30% drop to the 2.414 retracement level.
4Q 2022 will be very strong for SPX, probably retesting ATH at 4631. 3Q may be consolidation to digest the big crash & to set a new direction.
Not trading advice