Ethereum Hash Rate Ribbon Indicates Bullish Outlook

١٠ أغسطس ٢٠٢١

The Ethereum Hash Rate Ribbon indicator has turn green since August 9, 2021. The indicator is one of the most important and reliable indicators as a long-term buy/sell signal. Basically it means that the market low of 1700 USD after the crash in May is a macro event below which the Ethereum market will never fall again.

Bitcoin also has bottomed at about $30,000 and its Hash Rate Ribbon Indicator turned bullish a few days ago.

١٧ أغسطس ٢٠٢١

ملاحظة

In this chart I have the wave top of May 17, 2021, assigned as the end of a third wave of Intermediate Degree that started with the low of wave 2 from the COVID crash. That was a rather long wave 2 that started in June 2019, clearly a very major wave.

Before the end of the correction this spring/summer, I used to think the correction belonged to the even earlier and larger wave 1, topping in January 2018, but feedback here caused me to reexamine the price record, and abandon that assignment from channeling consideration of the minor waves. I have the 2018 high as wave 1 in Primary Degree. So, the COVID crash 2 was wave 2 of Intermediate Degree.

Looking back critically, and using Elliott channeling, I am beginning to doubt the assignment of the existing all-time high as a third wave in Intermediate Degree. Now I am wondering whether the true third wave is still in the future, and whether the ATH at 4384 or so, is only the first wave in Minor Degree of Intermediate Wave 3. That would make this summers correction wave 2 in Minor Degree.

The absolute position of the market in the grand scheme of human history may not be precise. Whether the largest waves of Ethereum are Cycle Degree or Primary Degree is not so important. What is important is that we get them right relative to each other. I doubt they are of Supercycle. A supercycle should last something like a century.

١ سبتمبر ٢٠٢١

ملاحظة

Here is a chart update for ETHUSD.

ETH finished a fourth wave correction in form of a running triangle (ABCDE) on August 30, and has been on a tear to higher territory ever since, but being still on the long leash of Bitcoin/BTC. Nevertheless, it took every opportunity during upside moves by BTC do push higher aggressively, causing its companion ETHBTC to also soar from c. 0.066 to almost 0.078, while BTC was still confined in its own consolidation. Especially in the last 24 hours, with BTC rallying to the top trend line of its correction, ETH put on over 10% to reach almost 3800.

Ethereum is well positioned to challenge the ATH in the coming days, or even surpass it, when BTC will try to establish itself above 50k, for a run on 57k.

It just happens that the 1.618 extension of wave (1), as assigned in the chart, and tacked on to end of correction wave E, coincides with the ATH by about five dollars. This makes this a high probability target for wave (5). Other common extensions are indicated also in the logarithmic Fib scale in green color.

Notice also that todays peak once again coincides a 150-hour Fibonacci time multiple, the sevenths since the 1718 low of July 20. This has been an interesting metric throughout this run, failing only once (#5) to produce a significant point in the chart.

١ سبتمبر ٢٠٢١

ملاحظة

PS: the trend channel is adjusted in slope to match the linear regression line so far in the bull run.

١ سبتمبر ٢٠٢١

ملاحظة

PS 2: The wave degree of the major waves of the bull run, i.e. (1), (2), (3), (4), and (5) is relative at this time, depending on what comes later in this chart. The first wave in the chart, from 6/26 to 7/04 and back down to 1718 on 7/20 is unlabeled. It may be still part of the correction as waves D and E to complete a triangle, or it may be a 1-2 sequence of larger degree than the following run so far. The proper assignment can most likely only be made later, further up in the chart after the ATH is broken to see what develops there, and how the future corrections look like.
As of now, it appears too large and took too much time relative to the run.

٣ سبتمبر ٢٠٢١

ملاحظة

Here is a tentative labeling of the fifth wave run this week.
The magnitude and speed of this leg up was a surprise after all the horizontal action previously. But perhaps it isn't a surprise. And no surprise that ETH is now consolidating in another horizontal channel as BTC has to finish its triangle.
The horizontal correction has been narrowly confined between about 3750 and 3850.
The size of this impulse has been about 700 points so far, and happened in only three days.

I believe that it still has the same size to run in wave 5, and will reach or exceed the ATH by September 8, in confluence with the 150-hour rhythm, shown earlier here. That is only 500 points from the the existing top.

٣ سبتمبر ٢٠٢١

ملاحظة

Bitcoin has pulled ETHUSD down to 3711. This may be the last safe entry point for a move to the ATH.
Add to your wallets!

٣ سبتمبر ٢٠٢١

ملاحظة

Those who did just that got an immediate 280 point gain overnight. The new high stands at 3985. Only 400 points to ATH.