Ethereum Bull Run Retrace Like 2017?

٢٤ مايو ٢٠٢١

Using a form of fractal analysis we can see ETH setting up now to play out like the 2017 bull run where a volatile rally is followed by a volatile retrace followed by a period of stasis at a slightly higher low.

In this case, there were many alleged catalysts in the news that could be pointed to; however, the signs were already in the chart by 5/15 with the double top & a pattern of lower lows.

Currently the technicals support a dead-cat bounce, which is also suggested in the fractal . It is important to remember the pattern may not play out exactly; look for rhyming & follow the signals in StochRSI & MACD .

٢٦ مايو ٢٠٢١

ملاحظة

The StochRSI & MACD continue to suggest the possibility of a rally. Levels to watch as possible resistance points:
3078.33
3445.91

Depending on how exhausted the rally is, a test of 3445.91 could signal a return to bullishness.

The OBV continues to suggest this may be a dead-cat bounce & not a true rally; the strength of these moves is weak & could change direction at any time. Levels to watch:
2802.63
2540.07

A failure to close above 2802.63 today could point to a potential top for the bounce though my eye is on 3078-ish as a top in the coming days.

٢٨ مايو ٢٠٢١

ملاحظة

This daily candle close may tell us the future direction, at least for the short term. If it closes below 2710.74 we could see the end of the dead cat bounce & more downside. Might wick down as far as 2691.34 today.

Otherwise, any move up would preserve the potential for a rally as the combination of RSI, MACD & OBV would be bullish.

٢٨ مايو ٢٠٢١

ملاحظة

It feels like we have confirmed the rhyming dead cat bounce. More downside likely. Next support level to watch is 2356.83.

٣٠ مايو ٢٠٢١

ملاحظة

As forecasted, the support of 2356.83 was breached. Now looking to see whether we will bounce off of 2159.35 or break below it in the coming days. Either is possible, but in the short term the technicals support more down side

١ يونيو ٢٠٢١

ملاحظة

The technicals continue to suggest weak bullishness favorable to mataining the downtrend. Could see a test of 2789.51 which is forecasted resistance. If sustained buy volume comes in we could see a resumption of the uptrend; it's possible but doesn't feel likely given current sentiment.

2553.20 is acting as support, a break of which would signal a continuation of the downtrend.

It is possible we may see sideways churning between the two levels to cool off the technicals in preparation for another leg up. That would probably be the best case for a bullish thesis & might signify accumulation is occurring.

٢ يونيو ٢٠٢١

ملاحظة

As forecasted, the range of 2553.20 to 2789.51 was tested. The sideways motion has positioned ETH for another test of 2789.51 in the coming days as the MACD is preparing a bullish cross & the RSI is not overbought; suggesting more upside.

A break of 2789.51 could lead to a gap up to test 3445.91.

More sideways action followed by a break up or down is also possible. Failure of of the MACD bullish cross to materialize would signal more downside.

In the short term, expect some more up side; mid term it is possible to see more down side.

٤ يونيو ٢٠٢١

ملاحظة

Sideways is the order of the day. Will re-evaluate after the weekend.

٩ يونيو ٢٠٢١

ملاحظة

Broke to the downside, violating the 2553.20 support with technicals being bearish; more downside in the short term. Watching 2365.72 as the next support level.

٢٢ يونيو ٢٠٢١

ملاحظة

After violating support at 2164.24 a rally is possible. Daily & Weekly technicals suggest room for a bounce while the monthly picture suggests this is only the beginning of the downside.

May test resistance & churn sideways.

٢٩ يونيو ٢٠٢١

ملاحظة

After churning sideways we've seen support form around 1714.15 and a move upward begin. MACD & RSI suggest might test as high as 2541.34. OBV is relatively flat; this move is not being generated by a move of money per se. Potential for the rally to test resistance, and head back down.

١ يوليو ٢٠٢١

ملاحظة

As suspected, the rally was not supported by new inflows as indicated by OBV. There's still potential for more upward movement but I believe we'll break back below 2164.24

It is possible we will re-test 1705.20 but 1958.05 looks like a more likely place for another bounce right now.

١٤ يوليو ٢٠٢١

ملاحظة

Bounced off of 1958.05 back over 2164.24 & churned sideways before testing breaking 2164.24 & now 1958.05.

1714.15 is a crucial level. Will it bounce off & form a double bottom for a possible reversal or will it hit a new low in the current trend?

٢٧ يناير ٢٠٢٣

ملاحظة

Like the BTC fractal forecast, this took a little longer than expected, but played out.