ETHUSD Perspective And Levels: Where's The Support?

٢ سبتمبر ٢٠١٧

ETHUSD Update: Correction unfolds as anticipated, but at a much larger magnitude which calls for a wave count adjustment. The next support levels for potential reversals are 326, 305 and 296.

I have been writing about it for over a week. My caution and concern kept me out of this market even though someone actually insisted I was "losing money" by waiting. I reiterated that the risk was high, and for those who are blindly driven by greed, the market will teach you this lesson just like it taught me over the years. In case you don't know, compared to the market, I am a much more cost effective instructor and nicer too.

I am sure many are wondering "What is going on?" and scouring the forums and news to look for any related information. BTC, along with the other coins have retraced significantly within a day. Out of no where the "follow the leader" relationship reasserts itself. The beauty of price action and TA in general is it doesn't matter why, The market discounts everything, and whatever is shaking out the reactionary weak hands is a normal and healthy sign. I don't even need to know why. What I need to do is be prepared to buy back in at the right time and price.

So let's talk levels. The supports at 365 and 350 were taken out with some hesitation, but none the less, taken out. Remember when I mention levels, they are reference points to observe further validation (something the people with very limited knowledge fail to understand). Validation means we are WAITING for reversal patterns, not buying blindly and then wondering why the price just fell through. If the reversal never comes, or fails, then we look to the next level.

At the moment, the 326 to the 305 support zone (.618 area of recent bullish swing) is the next area I am watching for a bullish reversal that I can measure risk from. IF price falls below this range, 296 is the .382 of the entire bullish structure and needs to hold in order to argue that this market is still bullish and not going into a broader consolidation.

In terms of Elliott Wave, this is NOT the beginning Wave 4 which I was expecting and writing about since we had 5 subwaves of the previous Wave 3 complete. The problem is in order to call this current structure a motive wave, the current retrace should not overlap into the area of the proportional Wave 1 and it has (red dotted line). Since the rule has been compromised by the market, I was forced to relabel my count. Instead of Wave 3 of 5, that entire up leg completed 5 of 5 waves. That puts the magnitude of this current retracement into a new light.

Another lesson about Elliott Wave is even though I was wrong about the anticipated magnitude of the current wave, I was right about the direction and the methodology has proven to help me avoid getting caught in a losing trade once again.

Now that I have perspective on this magnitude, I know that this correction may be part of a very broad Wave 2. And if I get any reversals to go long, I know to expect very conservative targets unless the support level is extreme like 296. Even then, if the market manages to retest that level and I buy, I will unload most of the position into the mid 300s.

Since we never took out the high of the broader Wave 1, the current 5 wave structure may be the fist leg of a very broad Wave 3 or a Wave B of the broader Wave 2. Either way, those counts point to a bearish wave which means there is more of a chance we retest lower levels before stability returns.

In summary, the crowd is always wrong at tops and bottoms. Whenever you read about outrageous targets and euphoric sentiment, that is usually an anecdotal sign of a top and there has been way too much of that in these markets recently. The swift retracement is larger in magnitude which may lead to significant selling if there is no stabilization at anticipated support levels of 326, 305 and 296 so I am just going to wait it out.

Questions and comments welcome.