ETH - 4H Rising Wedge

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Here we can see a 4H rising wedge forming for ETH. I have outlined the fib levels and the 200 MA (Red MA). As you can see the last time we got rejected at the 4H 200 MA we had a significant drop. If this is to repeat then our first target would be the support of our rising wedge (Target #1) and if we break that support we could fall to our measured move which is (Target #2). In addition to the generally "bearish" rising wedge pattern, we can see our 4H RSI is exactly at overbought conditions. The only way this pattern would become invalid is by closing a 4H candle above our resistance (4h 200MA).