ETH (Y20.P1.E1.v2).MACRO.Trend.Forecast

١٩ يناير ٢٠٢٠

Hi All,

This post is a continuation from my previous post (hypothesis).

Thoughts and ideas:
> At this point, we don't have enough data to project way forward like BTC because we lack of a long history regarding ETH.
> Working with what we have, we can speculate (it is the business to speculate) will a number of assumption based on BTC life cycle.
> Green box represents current situation but the target is the upper trend line (230 to 250)
> Note how I made use of the FIB. Gann fan and Ascending triangle rules.

Assumption notes:
> ALTs have hit their target for this cycle (refer to my post on Crypto TotalMarket Cap excluding BTC, link ideas area);
> BTC has 4 cycles which I have explained in a previous post video. I believe we are in the early phase of stage 2 of 4 parabolic rises, where stage 3 is the major parabolic bubble event and stage 4 is the huge bear market;
Similarly I believe ETH will follow something similar, that is we just finishing the bear market phase of the ALTs including ETH. We are only getting uptrend but not a trend change.
Look at the fib. and you will see we bearly hit the 0.286 level.
(I will provide the link here for the video of the BTC life cycle at the bottom of this post)
> Upper macro trend line is established
> This phase is the bottom, just like BTC in 2018


Daily chart
I have 2 targets, a) 230 to 250 and the other is 270



Previous ETH post related to this:

Link to video regarding BTC life cycle
Note: You might have to increase your speaker volume as it seems I had some technical issues with the sound.

Please don't forget to give me a tick\like, as I would appreciate it.


Regards,
S.Sari /CryptoProspa

١٩ يناير ٢٠٢٠

ملاحظة

With the recent drop, it does not surprise me that we can potentially test the bottom trend line (2). As I stated, we are still establishing the bottom of the bear market and hence a consolidation phase.
I'll be looking to enter with the scenario (2), based on what BTC has just done.

٢٠ يناير ٢٠٢٠

ملاحظة

The bearish perspective

٢٦ يناير ٢٠٢٠

ملاحظة

Update on the ETH, weekly and daily charts:
On the Weekly we have the MACD converging, but still a downtrend at the macro level

I have revisit the Macro chart with further details. Refer to the next post.