EUR_CHF (315 Pips)
EUR/CHF closed at 0.93158 last week, marking the lowest low in 9 years. This significant drop indicates strong bearish pressure on the pair.
Fundamental Analysis
The Euro Area's final CPI reading for October is expected to show headline inflation rising from 1.7% to 2.0% YoY, while core inflation remains at 2.7% YoY [4]. This could provide some support for the Euro. The European Central Bank (ECB) remains committed to its 2% inflation target and plans to keep policy rates restrictive as necessary [4].
The Swiss Franc has seen increased demand recently, with USD/CHF falling 1% over the last couple of trading days [4]. This strength in the Franc could continue to put pressure on the EUR/CHF pair.
Technical Analysis
The EUR/CHF pair is currently under significant bearish pressure after breaking below the support zone between 0.9335 and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the August upward move [1]. This breakdown has accelerated the active minor impulse wave iii of the higher order impulse wave (3) from May [1].
Key levels to watch:
- Support: 0.9250 (former strong support from January and August) [1]
- Resistance: 0.9335 (previous support level) [1].
The pair has decisively escaped a symmetric triangle pattern to the downside, breaking below a key horizontal support level [3]. This technical breakdown underscores the dominance of sellers in the current market environment.
Outlook for Next Week
Given the technical breakdown and the Franc's recent strength, the EUR/CHF pair is likely to continue facing downward pressure in the coming week. Traders should watch for a potential test of the 0.9250 support level [1], if EUR/CHF breaks below the 0.9250 support level, the next major support level would likely be around 0.9000 (315 pips).
However, if the Euro receives a boost from the expected inflation data, we could see some upward movement. In this case, the 0.9335 level will be crucial as a break above could signal a short-term bullish reversal [2].
Traders should also monitor broader market sentiment and any unexpected economic data or central bank communications that could impact either currency. The safe-haven appeal of the Swiss Franc, particularly in light of ongoing geopolitical tensions, may continue to support its strength against the Euro [3].
Citations:
[1] fxpro.news/tech-analysis/eurchf-wave-analysis-21-november-2024-20241121/
[2] paxforex.org/forex-fundamental-analysis/eurchf-forecast-november-19th-2024
[3] axiory.com/analytics/technical-analysis/safe-haven-effect-swiss-franc-pressures-eur-chf-be
[4] icmarkets.com/blog/ic-markets-europe-fundamental-forecast-19-november-2024/
[5] icmarkets.com/blog/ic-markets-europe-fundamental-forecast-20-november-2024/
[6] youtube.com/watch?v=pBIwsaF5zUk
[7] ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/euro_reference_exchange_rates/html/eurofxref-graph-chf.en.html
[8] ictrading.com/blog/tuesday-19th-november-2024-technical-outlook-and-review/
Fundamental Analysis
The Euro Area's final CPI reading for October is expected to show headline inflation rising from 1.7% to 2.0% YoY, while core inflation remains at 2.7% YoY [4]. This could provide some support for the Euro. The European Central Bank (ECB) remains committed to its 2% inflation target and plans to keep policy rates restrictive as necessary [4].
The Swiss Franc has seen increased demand recently, with USD/CHF falling 1% over the last couple of trading days [4]. This strength in the Franc could continue to put pressure on the EUR/CHF pair.
Technical Analysis
The EUR/CHF pair is currently under significant bearish pressure after breaking below the support zone between 0.9335 and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the August upward move [1]. This breakdown has accelerated the active minor impulse wave iii of the higher order impulse wave (3) from May [1].
Key levels to watch:
- Support: 0.9250 (former strong support from January and August) [1]
- Resistance: 0.9335 (previous support level) [1].
The pair has decisively escaped a symmetric triangle pattern to the downside, breaking below a key horizontal support level [3]. This technical breakdown underscores the dominance of sellers in the current market environment.
Outlook for Next Week
Given the technical breakdown and the Franc's recent strength, the EUR/CHF pair is likely to continue facing downward pressure in the coming week. Traders should watch for a potential test of the 0.9250 support level [1], if EUR/CHF breaks below the 0.9250 support level, the next major support level would likely be around 0.9000 (315 pips).
However, if the Euro receives a boost from the expected inflation data, we could see some upward movement. In this case, the 0.9335 level will be crucial as a break above could signal a short-term bullish reversal [2].
Traders should also monitor broader market sentiment and any unexpected economic data or central bank communications that could impact either currency. The safe-haven appeal of the Swiss Franc, particularly in light of ongoing geopolitical tensions, may continue to support its strength against the Euro [3].
Citations:
[1] fxpro.news/tech-analysis/eurchf-wave-analysis-21-november-2024-20241121/
[2] paxforex.org/forex-fundamental-analysis/eurchf-forecast-november-19th-2024
[3] axiory.com/analytics/technical-analysis/safe-haven-effect-swiss-franc-pressures-eur-chf-be
[4] icmarkets.com/blog/ic-markets-europe-fundamental-forecast-19-november-2024/
[5] icmarkets.com/blog/ic-markets-europe-fundamental-forecast-20-november-2024/
[6] youtube.com/watch?v=pBIwsaF5zUk
[7] ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/euro_reference_exchange_rates/html/eurofxref-graph-chf.en.html
[8] ictrading.com/blog/tuesday-19th-november-2024-technical-outlook-and-review/
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إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.