RISK ON, SHORT EURNOK for long term trade

١٧ أكتوبر ٢٠١٩

Hello fellow traders,
I expect all major markets to trade RISK ON since the FED announced QE 4, ECB starting QE ETERNITY, which is EUR negative, Brexit deal was just announced and optimism over a trade deal between the United States and China has ebbed.

١٧ أكتوبر ٢٠١٩

ملاحظة

The algos are still shorting NOK while most other risk-on currencies (AUD, NZD and SEK even) have risen considerably, making this trade less appealing.

١٧ أكتوبر ٢٠١٩

ملاحظة

The algos new-found love for the EURO is still pushing this pair up, most likely it will have a big move up the next coming days and come crashing down right after as the ECB QE is starting November 1st.

١٧ أكتوبر ٢٠١٩

ملاحظة

Oil is rising, risk-on currencies are rising and safe havens falling, EURNOK is still going higher even though it is considered risk-on trade. It seems the big banks and macro hedge funds know something that others dont.

١٨ أكتوبر ٢٠١٩

ملاحظة

Bulls are very confident at the current levels and seems like there is no profit taking so I would not enter right now and would even downsize the trade if you're in it.

١٨ أكتوبر ٢٠١٩

ملاحظة

Zooming in there seems to be nothing stopping the bulls, there's a parliament ruling on Brexit on Saturday so probably a big gap up/down will occur when markets open on Sunday night.

١٨ أكتوبر ٢٠١٩

ملاحظة

Oil has moved up, but there is no effect on the NOK price and if there is any oil weakness coming I expect this pair to move higher, so the short thesis is invalid for now.

١٨ أكتوبر ٢٠١٩

ملاحظة

There is a pretty good reason to think we just put in the high for EURNOR after Draghi's recent remark about overstretched valuations in Europe and a sharp rejection.

٢١ أكتوبر ٢٠١٩

ملاحظة

EURNOK broke through support and might find the next support zone at 10.15, but the way price action has been past few weeks, it will continue to drop for a couple of days straight.