EURNZD - 15-19 Feb 21 Week Trade Plan

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EURNZD

Previous Month : Bearish
Previous Week : Bullish
Daily : Bearish

- EURNZD retested the low formed at 6640 and formed a support on Feb 9. The bounce from 6640 extended to test resistance level 6780 and resistance zone at 6820/45 where it found solid rejection on Friday at the resistance zone but still holding above 6780/60 support zone.

- The COT report showing that NZD sellers are still picking up but still not a confirmation that buyers are out yet. I anticipate that this could be the spike that EN does with each new low created and with the current support formed at 6640.

- Seasonality is showing that NZD will weaken till end Feb, I anticipate that this week we could have the last strength for NZD before continuing weakness till end of Feb.

- So with Current solid bearish momentum, COT and Seasonality; I'd expect EURNZD to continue the bearish momentum and any spike will be treated as a good opportunity for shorts until a solid formation above 1.7020 level.

- Through trading several Months EURNZD, I prefer to see retracements to any move in order to have a range to trade to target created. So I recommend to Short after retracement or break and Resistance formation below broken Support and vise versa for Longs.

- No major news for NZD this week and China having Bank Holidays so not expecting major moves during Asia Sessions.


Weekly Chart Outlook:

Monthly Levels:

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ملاحظة

15 Feb - Based on Asia H/L and Weekly trade plan, EURNZD Short = -20

Daily: Bearish
4H: Bearish
Session Bias : Bearish

Took this trade based on Asia H/L and my Weekly trade plan. Was looking for Resistance formation below 6780 for continuation of the bearish momentum after rejection at 6820/45 resistance zone.

Asia created support at 6750 and EN started retracement and created Resistance in Pre-London.

Resistance formed in Pre-London is what i waited for to continue the previous Bearish 4H candle.

London open pushed EN down closing 30min below Asia low, i took my trade once we pushed below the Bullish 1H candle.

Trade went in small price but the 1H closed back above AL and EN started to retrace back up.

Closed 50% once EN reached the high of the bearish 30m candle with -10. Remaining got stopped with another -10.

Could have closed all at -10, but was looking that the current 4h will continue the bearish move and will close bearish. Also the 1h didn't close below AL which could be an early alert that i didn't take in consideration during the trade.

Entry 1H :
Entry 30m :
50% Close:
Trade closed:

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ملاحظة

16 Feb Based on Weekly Plan .. EURNZD Short Trade

As per my weekly trade plan, i was looking for resistance formation below 6780 for shorts to target lows at 6700 / 6640.

With Yesterday rejection at 6800 and breaking below 6770 again, it confirms for me that EN is unable to sustain the up move and we may head down to test lows.

Entry triggered after price created a low at 6715 as AL. Price retraced to the broken support turned resistance at 6760.

Watched price action on 5m which created a double with 15m closing bearish on the new 4H candle open along with the 30m.

I know that this is the new 4H candle open and previous one is bullish, but still respecting the bearish 4H candle and with current bearish momentum, i'm anticipating this 4H to test the current lows and may extend to lower levels.

1H Chart:
30m Chart:
5min Chart:
50% Close:
Trade Closed:

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ملاحظة

17 Feb - EURNZD Based on Session bias Long trade = BE

With EURNZD bullish move yesterday, today continuation of the bullish momentum is viable. But the concern i'd that we are approaching a solid Resistance zone 6820/45 that rejected EURNZD several times before.

Looking on 4H TF, EURNZD holding above key support level 6770 and creating support above that level on 30/1H TF.

In Pre-London, price created a range above Asia Low which gave me opportunity to jump in longs after breaking the range high to retest the Highs created at 6825 and may be extend the move further.

I went on 5m TF for entry with very tide SL as we are pushing into a solid resistance zone.

After breaking the range, i went into Long with SL below range support created and once price moved in +5 pips i moved SL to entry as i don't want to get caught in this resistance rejection if we didn't break it.

Move didn't give me much to bank some profit and went back to BE.
Glad that i moved SL to BE once in profit as EURNZD crashed down after.
Lesson learned: When pushing into resistance or support; Secure your trade at BE and if possible bank some profit.

Apologies that there are no details on the chart as it didn't last much and zones where on LTF.

Entry:
Close :