EURUSD: warming inflation, or not?
One of the most important events during the previous week was Fed Chairs Powell testimony in front of the US Congress. Some key takeaways from this hearing was that the Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates and that Fed's decisions will stay independent from any political interference. As for macro data posted during the previous week, January inflation data were in the spotlight of the market. Posted figures show a bit hotter inflation of 0,5% for the month, a bit higher from market estimate of 0,3%. Inflation rate on a yearly basis reached 3%. Core inflation continues to be elevated at 0,4% in January and 3,3% on a yearly basis. The Producers Price Index reached 0,4% in January, again higher from market estimate of 0,3%, while core PPI was at the level of 0,3% and in line with market consensus. The Retail Sales dropped by -0,9% in January, much higher from market expectation of -0,1%. The Retail Sales were higher by 4,2% on a yearly basis.
The inflation rate in January in Germany was standing at -0,2% for the month and 2,3% y/y. The GDP growth rate, second estimate for Q4 in the Euro Zone was 0,1%, and a bit higher from forecasted 0%. The GDP growth rate, second estimate for the year, was standing at 0,9%.
The US inflation in January, which was hotter than the market estimate, made investors prefer euro over dollar during the previous week. The currency pair started the week at levels modestly below the 1,03 level, and was pushed for the rest of the week toward the higher grounds. The highest weekly level was reached on Friday, at 1,051. The currency pair ended the week at the level of 1,0487. The RSI also reverted its move toward the level of 60, however, there is still enough space for the higher ground until the clear overbought market side is reached. The MA50 continues to slow down its divergence from MA200, with a solid distance between two lines, in which sense, the cross is not in the store anytime soon.
The currency pair reached the resistance line at 1,05 which had been tested during the previous week. Based on current charts, the eurusd will most probably continue to test these levels at the start of the week ahead. Considering a Holiday in the US on Monday, and lack of release of currently important data for markets, which is related to inflation, it should not be expected to have some higher volatility during the week. On the upside, the 1,05 level will be tested for one more time, while on the opposite side, there is a possibility for a short reversal, but not below the 1,04 support line.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in February for both EuroZone and Germany, PPI in January for Germany, HCOB Manufacturing PMI flash in February in Germany and the Euro Zone,
USD: Due to Holiday in the US markets will be closed on Monday, Building Permits preliminary in January, Housing Starts in January, FOMC Meeting Minutes, Existing Home Sales in January, Michigan Consumer Sentiment final for February.
The inflation rate in January in Germany was standing at -0,2% for the month and 2,3% y/y. The GDP growth rate, second estimate for Q4 in the Euro Zone was 0,1%, and a bit higher from forecasted 0%. The GDP growth rate, second estimate for the year, was standing at 0,9%.
The US inflation in January, which was hotter than the market estimate, made investors prefer euro over dollar during the previous week. The currency pair started the week at levels modestly below the 1,03 level, and was pushed for the rest of the week toward the higher grounds. The highest weekly level was reached on Friday, at 1,051. The currency pair ended the week at the level of 1,0487. The RSI also reverted its move toward the level of 60, however, there is still enough space for the higher ground until the clear overbought market side is reached. The MA50 continues to slow down its divergence from MA200, with a solid distance between two lines, in which sense, the cross is not in the store anytime soon.
The currency pair reached the resistance line at 1,05 which had been tested during the previous week. Based on current charts, the eurusd will most probably continue to test these levels at the start of the week ahead. Considering a Holiday in the US on Monday, and lack of release of currently important data for markets, which is related to inflation, it should not be expected to have some higher volatility during the week. On the upside, the 1,05 level will be tested for one more time, while on the opposite side, there is a possibility for a short reversal, but not below the 1,04 support line.
Important news to watch during the week ahead are:
EUR: ZEW Economic Sentiment Index in February for both EuroZone and Germany, PPI in January for Germany, HCOB Manufacturing PMI flash in February in Germany and the Euro Zone,
USD: Due to Holiday in the US markets will be closed on Monday, Building Permits preliminary in January, Housing Starts in January, FOMC Meeting Minutes, Existing Home Sales in January, Michigan Consumer Sentiment final for February.
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