Influenced by bearish comments from FOMC member Brainard, the EUR/USD shifted to the upside during yesterday’s US session. July’s opening level at 1.1417 as well as the H4 mid-level resistance at 1.1450 were taken out, with the major ending the day closing just ahead of a H4 supply base coming in at 1.1529-1.1484 (formed back in May 2016).

What’s interesting about the said H4 supply is that it is fresh, and is positioned around the upper edge of a major weekly supply drawn from 1.1533-1.1278 (that has capped upside since May 2015). Alongside this, we can also see daily price currently teasing a resistance level at 1.1464.

Our suggestions: With the above notes in mind, this recent Bull Run could be tested today! Our desk has decided to set a pending sell order at 1.1484, and place a stop-loss order above the WEEKLY supply edge at 1.1535. Although this is a 50-pip stop, one has to take into account that price could potentially move 100s of pips from this base given that it’s positioned within a weekly supply zone. Should this setup come to fruition, we will ultimately be looking for the bears to run through 1.1450 and challenge July’s opening level at 1.1417, before taking partial profits and reducing risk to breakeven.

Data points to consider: Fed Chair Yellen testifies at 3pm GMT+1.
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