EURUSD: A Completed Shark Pattern & Explanation

٢٧ يوليو ٢٠١٥

I wanted to post this completed shark pattern separately from all the other patterns that are present right now in this pair. Refer to my other post (see Related Ideas: "ANALYSIS: EURUSD Outlook: Pattern Explosion! What Happens Now?")

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I did not include this Shark pattern in that post as I didn't notice it until recently and also it gives me another chance to show another example of it in action. As well as again show the 5-0 pattern. The Shark pattern is unique among all the other harmonic patterns in that it is both a "class 2" pattern where the "C" point (in the case of a Shark pattern, the "A" point is the "X" point) actually exceeds the A point AND it is also an extension pattern where the ending point is beyond the origination point of the pattern. In the case of the Shark, it is 1.13.

So is this actually a COMPLETED shark pattern? Right now, as of this posting, prices have NOT actually reached the exact point of the 1.13 extension (1.11133). The highest high is at 1.11122 right now. But the shark CAN BE considered completed. Why? Because the MINIMUM required point for the shark's extreme harmonic impulse wave (the BC leg) is at .886 and prices have exceeded that already.

Also notice that the RSI is right now oversold. In confluence with a harmonic pattern completion, this is a strong signal of a pending reaction.

Now you might ask, "Where is the PRZ?". In THIS CASE, the PRZ doesn't exist! Why? Because Shark patterns demand an immediate reaction upon it's completion. In this shark, the extreme harmonic extension ratios (1.618 - 2.24) would fall way short of the C point completion so they would not be of any importance here. BTW, in shark's, there is not any ratio requirement for the mid-point (the A point in shark's).

Now, the shark , being only a PART of the 5-0 pattern actually is opposite that of the 5-0 pattern in nature. Meaning that, like here, the shark is a BEARISH shark whereas the 5-0 pattern upon it's completion is a BULLISH 5-0 pattern. Upon completion of the 5-0, I would expect prices to resume an uptrend.

WHAT I AM EXPECTING NOW
Now that the shark pattern has been completed, I am watching the PA to see which direction will it go from here. As you know from my other related post, there is a bearish bat still looming overhead and I am not convinced prices will not go up more. If prices violate the shark's 1.13 C point, then I will consider the shark to be invalid and wait for the bat to complete to go short.

Am I favoring this shark and 5-0 over the other patterns I had drawn up in my other post? NO! Again, I trade what I see. NOT what I want to see.

If prices do begin to fall, I will expect that it will fall to the 50% retracement point to complete the 5-0. You might also notice that the 50% level also has confluence with a minor SR structure. At that point, I will reassess the PA to see where it might go next. There are other harmonic patterns below the 50% retrace of the 5-0 completion point so will need to wait and see what happens. Remember, overall I am BULLISH on this pair so really, I am looking for good opportunities to go LONG.