expecting IFO Business Climate Index would be positive tomorrow
Over the past 20 years, the IFO Business Climate Index in Germany has been negative for four or more consecutive months on three occasions:
April 2020 to July 2020 (four months)
January 2011 to April 2011 (four months)
August 2008 to October 2008 (three months)
so the IFO Business Climate Index has never been negative for five consecutive months in the past 20 years.
And as of October 24, 2023, the IFO Business Climate Index in Germany has been negative for four consecutive months.
the pace of decline in the IFO Business Climate Index has slowed down in recent months:
25 Aug 2023 forecast:83.5 Actual:82.6
25 Sep 2023 forecast:83 Actual:82.9
Regarding the effect of the war between Gaza and Israel:
The war between Gaza and Israel can have negative economic effects that could potentially impact the result of the IFO business climate of Germany. However, it is important to note that the direct impact on Germany's business climate may be limited due to various factors such as geographic distance and the structure of their economies.
But there are several indirect channels through which the conflict can affect global economic conditions, which in turn may influence Germany's business climate:
One potential negative economic effect is the disruption of global trade flows.
Another potential economic effect is the increase in oil prices.
Furthermore, geopolitical tensions resulting from the conflict can create uncertainty in financial markets. Investors may become more risk-averse.
But i think the tension in the middle east is recent. the economy is slow, the road between Cause and Effect takes time, i don't think it would effect the German economy that fast. this is my expectation if you disagree please share with me your opinion in the comments.
April 2020 to July 2020 (four months)
January 2011 to April 2011 (four months)
August 2008 to October 2008 (three months)
so the IFO Business Climate Index has never been negative for five consecutive months in the past 20 years.
And as of October 24, 2023, the IFO Business Climate Index in Germany has been negative for four consecutive months.
the pace of decline in the IFO Business Climate Index has slowed down in recent months:
25 Aug 2023 forecast:83.5 Actual:82.6
25 Sep 2023 forecast:83 Actual:82.9
Regarding the effect of the war between Gaza and Israel:
The war between Gaza and Israel can have negative economic effects that could potentially impact the result of the IFO business climate of Germany. However, it is important to note that the direct impact on Germany's business climate may be limited due to various factors such as geographic distance and the structure of their economies.
But there are several indirect channels through which the conflict can affect global economic conditions, which in turn may influence Germany's business climate:
One potential negative economic effect is the disruption of global trade flows.
Another potential economic effect is the increase in oil prices.
Furthermore, geopolitical tensions resulting from the conflict can create uncertainty in financial markets. Investors may become more risk-averse.
But i think the tension in the middle east is recent. the economy is slow, the road between Cause and Effect takes time, i don't think it would effect the German economy that fast. this is my expectation if you disagree please share with me your opinion in the comments.
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