EURUSD Outlook 7/31

٣١ يوليو ٢٠٢٣

EURUSD Outlook - EURUSD is HTF Bullish. Price just validated a bullish monthly OB and is now returning into the body of this OB. we can anticipate bullish price action from within the body to a new recent high.

Last week traded into what can be considered a daily bullish breaker. there is a 12hour balanced price range below the weekly open price. The expectation is that price will likely trade at least to the 12h BPR and potentially to the daily FVG below, before looking to expand and take out last week’s high which formed with relative equal highs and is a pretty clear pool of liquidity. This week’s news is of high impact with NFP on Friday.

١ أغسطس ٢٠٢٣

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long on EU

١ أغسطس ٢٠٢٣

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some encouraging movement finally. Will hold interday.

٢ أغسطس ٢٠٢٣

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moving well during asia, however there is a double bottom just above the daily FVG that makes me weary. Holding for now.

٢ أغسطس ٢٠٢٣

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price rejected off a 4H FVG at the weekly open and reversed. Unfortunate. took a loss here as I was reluctant to move SL to BE. Points for analysis, no points for risk management on this one.

٢ أغسطس ٢٠٢٣

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Will be watching the daily FVG below for potential longs

٢ أغسطس ٢٠٢٣

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im taking a risk entry buy here at consequent encroachment of the daily FVG.

This is riskier as there is not entry schematic, but it is a valid trade from a liquidity and price rebalancing perspective.

٢ أغسطس ٢٠٢٣

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as the R/R here exceeds 1:6 i will be using 3 TPs instead of 2 in a 50-30-20 format per my risk management strategy.

٢ أغسطس ٢٠٢٣

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As I have a number of positions in this trade I am moving the SL of all but one position to below the recent low to minimize risk. Full risk on the remaining position.

٢ أغسطس ٢٠٢٣

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always juggling hubris vs confidence in trading. Only time exposes which was at play.

٢ أغسطس ٢٠٢٣

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going break even. This is either it or it isn't. No high impact news expected for today so there shouldn't be any unforseen price spiking.

٢ أغسطس ٢٠٢٣

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would've liked more movement. holding interday, giving room for the spread widening.

٣ أغسطس ٢٠٢٣

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Still in this one, SL moved just below break even. While I do think price will expand higher, I've reduced my TPs more conservatively

٣ أغسطس ٢٠٢٣

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dont like how its developing tbh. may not hold. had move SL back to risk for news.

٣ أغسطس ٢٠٢٣

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if we trade above the recent high I will be going break even and wont be moving my stop back into risk from there.

٣ أغسطس ٢٠٢٣

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going break even. im going to give myself points for patience, sticking to the idea till it was invalidated, and risk management on this one. the outcome is in the market's hands at this point.

٣ أغسطس ٢٠٢٣

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Be it a positive or negative trade outcome, once you have done your due diligence as far as analysis and risk management, all you can do is submit to time.

٣ أغسطس ٢٠٢٣

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For anyone following along, a conservative take profit for this would be the weekly open price at 1.10211.

٤ أغسطس ٢٠٢٣

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While I do think price is likely to reach the current TPs I am prioritizing trade completion over catching the entire move as it may take into next week and I dont hold over the weekend. Moving take profit to monday's high.

٤ أغسطس ٢٠٢٣

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NFP going as anticipated.

٤ أغسطس ٢٠٢٣

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TP1 hit. 80% out of this position.

٤ أغسطس ٢٠٢٣

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closing out the rest of my position here as the day comes to a close.

Back at it again next week.

٤ أغسطس ٢٠٢٣

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Another week, more funding challenges passed. slowly building my empire one brick at a time.