EURUSD: EUR/USD holds steady at peak, awaiting PMI data.
The main movement of EUR/USD this week was driven by statements expressing the views of the Fed and ECB with a strong increase from 1.0800 to the important resistance level of 1.1000 yesterday.
This makes this currency pair face a rather interesting situation when Eurozone PMI data will be published this afternoon. Does the above data support the ECB's stance of "keeping interest rates higher for a long time"? Or will it pressure central banks to act faster next year?
Additionally, another factor to consider is the Fed's ability to cut interest rates. The odds of a rate cut in March are currently around 80%, so there won't be much room left to exploit this story on the USD side.
However, for the ECB, the rate of a cut in March is currently only 55%. Therefore, any change in this possibility will depend on upcoming data with PMI being reliable data in forecasting the economic outlook.
Another factor to note: Today is the options expiration date for EUR/USD at 1.0950. This price level will help the pair be more stable in case any downward pressure occurs.
This makes this currency pair face a rather interesting situation when Eurozone PMI data will be published this afternoon. Does the above data support the ECB's stance of "keeping interest rates higher for a long time"? Or will it pressure central banks to act faster next year?
Additionally, another factor to consider is the Fed's ability to cut interest rates. The odds of a rate cut in March are currently around 80%, so there won't be much room left to exploit this story on the USD side.
However, for the ECB, the rate of a cut in March is currently only 55%. Therefore, any change in this possibility will depend on upcoming data with PMI being reliable data in forecasting the economic outlook.
Another factor to note: Today is the options expiration date for EUR/USD at 1.0950. This price level will help the pair be more stable in case any downward pressure occurs.
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