The US dollar's recent weakness stems from easing inflation and increasingly dovish Fed commentary. Markets have already partially priced in a September rate cut, but further upside potential remains for EUR/USD. This is particularly true as political risks in the EU stabilize, returning the euro to pre-election levels.
Meanwhile, the ECB's wait-and-see approach after its recent rate cut could further support the EUR/USD uptrend. I've detailed the broader economic landscape in previous posts, but the combination of factors makes a move towards 1.1000 quite plausible.
Technically, EUR/USD is consolidating in both the long- and medium-term. However, bullish momentum on shorter timeframes could either propel the pair above 1.0900 or lead to a minor correction around 1.0850 before resuming the upward trajectory.
This week's US economic calendar is relatively light, but the ECB meeting on Thursday is key. While rates are expected to remain unchanged, President Lagarde's tone will be crucial. A slightly hawkish stance, as seen in the last meeting, could provide additional support for EUR/USD's upward movement.
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