EURUSD | Towards 1.08 today?

١٧ يناير

The EUR/USD exchange rate is recording losses below 1.0900, marking five-week lows at 1.0862 on Tuesday. Investors are monitoring the US dollar and assessing the Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook amid persistent geopolitical risks, with a particular focus on US retail sales data. If the EUR/USD continues to decline and surpasses the 2024 low at 1.0861, it could reach the critical 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0847, followed by the lows of 2023. The 4-hour chart suggests further short-term losses, with the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicating oversold conditions. Potential rebound attempts may encounter resistance at 1.0925 and 1.0998. The weakness of the euro has been influenced by the strengthening dollar, pushing the Dollar Index (DXY) to new 2024 highs beyond 103.00. Comments from European Central Bank (ECB) officials, contrary to investor expectations, have contributed to the situation. Market participants anticipate rate cuts by both the ECB and the Fed in 2024. The probability of a Fed rate cut in March is now at 70%. The decline in the euro's value has been influenced by rising yields, with German bunds reaching yearly highs. The improvement in Economic Sentiment in Germany and the broader Eurozone has not supported the European currency. In the United States, the Empire State Manufacturing Index significantly weakened to -43.7 in January. Greetings and have a good trading day to everyone from Nicola.