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Despite expectations of a decrease in inflation, its unexpected rise is a setback rather than a sign of a renewed acceleration in inflation. Our forecast still predicts a primarily decreasing trend in inflation, but it will take years to reach the Fed's target of 2%. This means that the US will have higher rates compared to other regions, even if the eurozone experiences higher inflation (anticipated at 8.2% this week) due to the ECB's more cautious approach and its lower terminal rate compared to the Fed's. This historical trend also indicates that the dollar will remain strong for an extended period, possibly throughout the year.
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