$GBP v $CHF Mulls Limited Decline Pending Geo | #BOE #SNB #forex

٩ أغسطس ٢٠١٥

Friends,


GBP vs. CHG offers a high-probability of a geometric completion following the price pathway speculated in the chart (dashed orange pathway):





PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:

Predictive/Forecasting Model defined the following two qualitative targets:

1 - TG-Hi = 1.54017 - 09 AUG 2015

and

2 - TG-Hix = 1.57575 - 09 AUG 2015


ELLIOTT WAVE:

Current price action may be completing a 5th wave of a larger bullish impulse, with 5th wave pending a higher structural level in the vicinity of the targets defined by the Predictive/Forecasting Model. Note how well the EW's Rule of Alternations worked here between a curt 2nd wave and a protracted 4th wave.


MARKET GEOMETRIES:

Two possible market geometric development rest on the Wolfe Wave pattern and the Geo, albeit Point-4 remains speculative and ill-defined at this early stage. As indicated above, a price decline is expected, with support corresponding to an internal structural (i.e.: internal to the highlighted geometry).

A Wolfe Wave would seek completion at or near the first Model's forecast targetat 1.54017, whereas a Geo would allow for a temporary excursion to the topside of the WW, ideally along the 3-5' Line, convergent to the Model's highest defined target at 1.57575.


OVERALL:

In the background, an interim decline to carve out a higher low is expected, defining Point-4 on the way to a geometric completion of WW or Geo. At the foreground, the Predictive/Forecasting Model defined loftier targets than Wolfe Wave, but in line with a Geo completion.

Best,


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


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David Alcindor
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٢٩ أكتوبر ٢٠١٥

ملاحظة

29 OCT 2015 - Moving "Post Comment" content into "Update Status" to keep discussion and trade development separate.

=================================
11 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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GBPCHF hits target at 1.54017; Meets resistance; Background geometry remains unfolds:



GBP CHF #BOE #SNB #franc
---------
David Alcindor


24 AUG 2015 - UPDATE:

From Twitter/LinkedIn:
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GBPCHF hit higher-prob. 1.47093 target; Reversal to 1.57575 target now more probable:



GBP CHF #BOE #SNB #forex
----------

David Alcindor

٢٩ أكتوبر ٢٠١٥

ملاحظة

29 OCT 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

iefan - I saw your query in the ATHENA room ... Here is what I am looking at for now:



Basically, price failed to deliver a simple ZZ geometry to a lower level (orange line). Although the ZZ geometry occurred, it since carved a higher-high.

While this provides the outline for a potential ATHENA application in the diverging lines, I am not certain yet that it would occur.

In any case, YES: I do trade the last two legs of the ATHENA (4-5 Leg, then Point-5 reaction).

Now, looking at other GBP charts, one in particular caught my attention, suggesting that it could bring GBP down, and thus by correlation, could bring this one down to an undershoot of the geometry in GBPCHF as well (pink arrow down in GBPCHF) - I am referring to GBPAUD where a 5' is nearing completion.

Per Geo's Off-Set Rule #2, we are thus looking at this potential move:


Hence, the correlation could carry through to the GBPCHF and bring price to completion of its internal geometry (black).

Best,

David Alcindor

٢ نوفمبر ٢٠١٥

ملاحظة

02 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price ignores geometry; Continues to rally to Model's TG-Hix target:



David Alcindor

٧ نوفمبر ٢٠١٥

ملاحظة

07 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Prior chart suggested possibility of a limited decline t 1.43051. Instead, consider this shallower interim option, whereby price would complete a reciprocal ab = cd symmetry to rest at the value illustrated in the chart ... Bullish target remain intact and in force:



David Alcindor

١٢ نوفمبر ٢٠١٥

ملاحظة

12 NOV 2015 - Chart Update:

Bullish target remains intact and in force. However, expect an interim respite from bulls, seeking repose at 1.49095 before recommencing a final advance to Qual-Target TG-Hix = 1.57575, defined this past August 09th, 2015::



David Alcindor

١٧ نوفمبر ٢٠١٥

ملاحظة

17 NOV 2015 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Price continues to rally ... Did not retrace as low as expected (1.49095) ... Forecast remains intact and in force:



David Alcindor

٩ يناير ٢٠١٦

ملاحظة

08 JAN 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Here is an example where the Wolfe Wave would have been much more precise a method than the Geo's, considering that the off-set at Point-1 in the Geo caused a miss on Point-5:


Based on the Wolfe Wave, expect price to seek validation along the 1-4 Line.

David Alcindor

٩ يناير ٢٠١٦

ملاحظة

ADDENDUM:

Now, also beware of this potential larger geometry, since the Model's bullish target remains unanswered:


David Alcindor

١٠ فبراير ٢٠١٦

ملاحظة

09 FEB 2016 - Chart Update / Tech-Note:

Target a 1.57575 remains intact and in force. Price remains close to dashed arrow forecast - Note that I have expanded the geometry (PINK), and added an internal Geo (BLACK), suggesting a probable or near completion of the 5-plot cycle - This suggests an imminent rallying:


Aside from these geometries, Model remains BULLISH, eyeing the original 1.57575 target.

Best,

David Alcindor