GBP/JPY setting up for a swing-trade short?

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My core bias this year is for the Japanese yen to outperform, and for yen pairs such as GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY etc to suffer.

We are currently within a countertrend bounce against a much larger bearish move on GBP/JPY, but a doji formed just beneath a resistance cluster on Thursday to suggest the bounce is pausing, if not correcting itself.

The 1-hour chart shows that volumes were rising while prices fell from Thursday's high, and volumes were lower as they recouped some of those losses. Yet with GBP/JPY now trying to form a bearish outside candle on the 1-hour chart, perhaps a swing high has already formed.

The near-term bias is bearish while prices remain beneath 192.50, and for prices to fall to at least the 38.2% Fibonacci ratio ~190.75.


Matt Simpson, Market Analyst at City Index and Forex.com

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