LONG GJ from 128.11 to 128.40/50

١٠ أكتوبر ٢٠١٦

LONG from 128.11 to 128.40/50, possibly 128.75 where yellow rsst line is, and where the possibility for a reversal short might present itself. This is a very short term play based on M1/M3/M5 microstructure analysis.

WHY?

ANSWER: ( the following does not apply to M15--it's all based on M1/M3/M5; it is a very short play because as we can see from M15, we are entering the zone when, yes, ccy might still move up but TIs show time is coming soon to find short entry point but looking at PA context, not from these levels, but from higher levels. Hence a quick scalp long before reversing if context does not change significantly. )

• the gap open was closed;
  
• SMIIOC Ergodic Coppock oscillator gave signal long at spike through lower Bollinger band on M3;
  
• Shaff Trend Cycle was in OS zone indicating it was time to start looking for an entry point long on M3/M5;
  
• major monthly pivot sppt was not even tested again, although that might change later when London/NY come online;
  
• initial move down to close gap also driven by similar move on UJ to close the UJ open gap.
  

١٠ أكتوبر ٢٠١٦

ملاحظة

I forgot to add a TL on the SMIIOC study, which on M30 it is even more visible the study is showing an upward trend building up.

Also, pay attention to this latest down push on M1/M3/M5 both on UJ and GJ. This is no because price is going to drop through the floor; that's because someone needs to induce more people to sell so they can buy into these sell orders because they are targeting and upside price level: maybe 128.40/50 or 128.75 or 129.50.

Good luck.

١٠ أكتوبر ٢٠١٦

ملاحظة

still great levels to enter LONG at. from here to 127.70. as long as the monthly S1 and weekly pivots hold support, which they have so far.

anyone disagrees, please feel free to argue.

١٠ أكتوبر ٢٠١٦

ملاحظة

LONG context has disappeared. another one for the dustbin, it seems. :(

١٠ أكتوبر ٢٠١٦

ملاحظة

although, if we look at this M15 chart, price appears to find support where that yellow dashed line is. look to the left and what do you see?

١٠ أكتوبر ٢٠١٦

ملاحظة

Looking at UJ, it seems the move up is starting finally:

١٠ أكتوبر ٢٠١٦

ملاحظة

Here is the GJ chart, same TF ie M15: BUT GJ needs to decisively clear those weekly and montly pivots and stay above the Bollinger band midline. so far it hasn't happen.

١٠ أكتوبر ٢٠١٦

ملاحظة

again, of note, is PA (price action) right at support (yellow dashed line)--the level has been tested 4 times now, and the current candle is a bullish rejection (for now):

١٠ أكتوبر ٢٠١٦

ملاحظة

well, what do ya know? TP has been reached.

TAKE-AWAY: not all sppt/rsst levels are the samel it is important to be able to identify the most significant ones, that is, assign the proper weight to the different sppt/rsst levels so as to distinguish the minor ones from the major ones. Also, oscillations around major monthly and weekly pivot lines seem to occur regularly and because price moved 20 or 30 pips beyond a pivot only to come back to the other side of the pivot neither means the pivot was broken nor that the first direction of the initial move is the direction the price will subsequently take again. In other, words, prior historical lows and highs, and intermediate lows and highs that occur intraday between the daily and weekly and monthly historical lows and highs are the key levels to watch as they define subsequent trading ranges--pivots are just a simple arithmetic computation that mathematically generates a visual representation of some of these levels, hence one could dispense with them, except perhaps the long term ones, such as yearly and monthly since to see these one would have to zoom out so much from an intraday chart.