News background and trading ideas for 09/11/2018

٩ نوفمبر ٢٠١٨

The significant event in the financial markets, yesterday was an announcement of the outcome of the FOMC meeting. As expected, the Fed kept rates steady and remain their rhetoric: economy activity is growing, and the rate will continue to increase at the planned pace. In total, the Central Bank once again played along the dollar, what was our expectations.

Regarding our position on the dollar, we've decided to occupy a neutral position. The election outcome created a rather strong uncertainty around Trump's ability to carry out further reforms, plus there is a risk of intensifying political scandals. We will monitor the development of the situation, and when there is more clarity, we will determine the priority direction of trade. Meanwhile, you can work with the dollar on ad hoc basis.

Meanwhile, somewhere in Europe, the confrontation between EU and Italy continues, what has a damaging influence on the euro. Thus, sales of a single European currency, rather, wouldn't be the worst trading idea for today.

With regard to the fundamental background on Friday, the most interesting should take place in pairs with the pound. The thing is, today will be released the data on GDP of UK. In the analysts' forecast, the growth of GDP will be of 0.6% q/q after an increase of 0.4% in the previous quarter. And although ultimately the outcome of negotiations between the UK and the EU will determine the future of the pound, today's data may well influence the short-term dynamics of the British currency. Recall, we continue to maintain the bullish position on the pounds’ pairs since we believe in the successful treaty conclusion. So, if the data comes out not well, you should wait until a wave of sales comes down and buy a pound cheaper.

In the oil market, the situation remains relatively unchanged. The downward impulse is somewhat exhausted, but it has completed its mission - the bulls lost confidence in the inevitability of rising oil prices. And obviously, bears confidently took the situation under control. We recommend selling oil for several months now, and so far we see no reason to change our position. As well as we do not plan to change our position on the Russian ruble, we continue to look for points for its sales.

The current decline in gold assets can be used for tidy intraday asset purchases. Let’s remind, we buy gold within the day, while it is above 1210.