GBPUSD: As per Fundamental Analysis, BEARISH in December
GBPUSD: LEI, ENDO and EXO SUMMARY (BEARISH Monthly)
LEI MIX: Collectively LEIs of USD was increasing and LEIs of GBP are decreasing. Hence overall LEI data is MIX
ENDO DECREASING: ENDO of GBP are decreasing as compared to USD, making GBP a weaker currency compared to USD.
EXOs DECREASING: USD is getting stronger than GBP from EXO perspective as well. EXO has higher precedence as well.
EXO+LEI INCREASING:
FINAL SCORE DECREASING: Collective ENDO and EXO, of GBPUSD indicate that USD is becoming stronger than GBP
TRADE BIAS CONCLUSION ON ENDO/EXO: GBPUSD has a BEARISH probability on Weekly/Monthly timeframe.
REAL INTEREST RATES
Interest Rates of both GBP and USD are moving in the same DOWN direction, hence it is not a key factor or BIAS creation.
NEWS EVENTS
Many Key events for USD (Bolded):
1. USD: ISM Manf PMI: 02-Dec-24 (7:00 PM GMT+4)
2. USD: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: 04-Dec-24 (5:15 PM GMT+4)
3. USD: ISM Services PMI: 04-Dec-24 (7:00 PM GMT+4)
4. USD: Fed Chair Powell Speaks: 04-Dec-24 (10:45 PM GMT+4)
5. USD: Unemployment Rate (NFP): 06-Dec-24 (5:30 PM GMT+4)
6. USD: CPI y/y: 11-Dec-24 (5:30 PM GMT+4)
7. USD: PPI: 12-Dec-24 (5:30 PM GMT+4)
8. GBP: GDP m/m: 12-Dec-24 (11:00 AM GMT+4)
9. GBP: Manuf PMI and Service PMI: 16-Dec-24 (1:30 AM GMT+4)
10. USD: Retails Sales: 17-Dec-24 (5:30 PM GMT+4)
11. GBP: CPI y/y: 18-Dec-24 (11:00 AM GMT+4)
12. USD: Interest Rate: 18-Dec-24 (11:00 PM GMT+4)
13. GBP: Interest Rate: 19-Dec-24 (4:00 PM GMT+4)
13. GBP: Retail Sales: 20-Dec-24 (11:00 AM GMT+4)
14. USD: Consumer Confidence: 23-Dec-24 (07:00 PM GMT+4)
15. USD: Unemployment Claims: 26-Dec-24 (5:30 PM GMT+4)
GBPUSD SEASONAL ANALYSIS MAPPED TO NEWS EVENTS
1. BULLISH: From 03 - 5 DEC
2. SIDEWAYS TO BEARISH: From 06 - 11 DEC
3. BEARISH: From 12 - 26 DEC
GBPUSD COT FLIP ANALYSIS FOR NON-COMMERCIALS
1. "Difference (Blue Line)", DECREASING for GBPUSD, that means Smart-Players are closing their LONG positions for GBP or cloaing their SHORT Position in USD.
2. The FLIP Data of OF USD, giving BUY signale and for GBP giving SELL signal
3. This will make GBPUSD BEARISH.
COT RSI ANALYSIS
1. The COT RSI for both GBP and USD is near zero.
2. The "Non-Comm LONG" position does not show sharp increase for both Currencies
3. Also "Net Non-Comm" does not show an increase trend
SUMMARY ON COT ANALYSIS
COT report does not yet give a strong SHORT or LONG BIAS but Data is favoring USD LONG,
hence GBPUSD Bearish movement matches with ENDO and EXO analysis as well.
DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
TREND: Bearish as per DOW, as also indicated by Fundamental analysis.
DIVERGENCE: No bullish divergence, meaning bearish movement continue.
HEIKIN-ASHI: Bearish movement will confirm after retracement to FIB level 23.6%.
PATTERN: Not any thing specific
FIB: Level 23.6% is tested as resistance and bearish movement might start.
S&R: Strong support at 1.2500 and current price is 1.2673. High probability that this support will be retested and it might break it.
EMA: Price Below 200 EMA
ALLIGATOR: Mouth is openning supporting strong bearish movement.
Scho-RSI: Above 80 and slightly going down
DAILY TRADE PLAY: STRONG BEARISH BIAS
Entry: 1.26730, SL: 1.27633,
TP1:1.25016, TP2: 1.24053
4H TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
TREND: Bullish to Sideways as per DOW
DIVERGENCE: None
HEIKIN-ASHI: Bullish confirmation needed
FIB: At 4H 38.20% is tested as resistance and bullish movement is expected
S&R: Resistance at 1.2740 and if breaken and bullish movement will get configmed.
EMA: Price Below 200 EMA and if broken then bullish trend will continue.
ALLIGATOR: Mouth is closed now but about to open.
Scho-RSI: Again turning up with some sideway movement.
4H TRADE PLAY: BULLISH BIAS
Entry: 1.2673, SL: 1.24993,
TP1:1.2777, TP2: 1.2811
1H TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
TREND: Bullish to Sideways and trend might become bullish after USD:Service PMI news on 4th December.
DIVERGENCE: None and bullish trend is expected to continue.
HEIKIN-ASHI: Bullish to Sdideways seen as well.
FIB: Price retraced to level 50% and then reacted to resistance at 23.60% level.
S&R: Resistance at 1.269 is respected one and if broken then bullish trend will continue.
EMA: Price above 200 EMA and it is respected as support.
ALLIGATOR: Partially open hence signalling sideway movement till 4th Dec news of Services PMI.
Scho-RSI: also signalling sideway movement.
1H TRADE PLAY: Pendding bullish order.
Buy Stop: 1.2703, SL: 1.28100,
TP1: 1.274, TP2: 1.2799
LEI MIX: Collectively LEIs of USD was increasing and LEIs of GBP are decreasing. Hence overall LEI data is MIX
ENDO DECREASING: ENDO of GBP are decreasing as compared to USD, making GBP a weaker currency compared to USD.
EXOs DECREASING: USD is getting stronger than GBP from EXO perspective as well. EXO has higher precedence as well.
EXO+LEI INCREASING:
FINAL SCORE DECREASING: Collective ENDO and EXO, of GBPUSD indicate that USD is becoming stronger than GBP
TRADE BIAS CONCLUSION ON ENDO/EXO: GBPUSD has a BEARISH probability on Weekly/Monthly timeframe.
REAL INTEREST RATES
Interest Rates of both GBP and USD are moving in the same DOWN direction, hence it is not a key factor or BIAS creation.
NEWS EVENTS
Many Key events for USD (Bolded):
1. USD: ISM Manf PMI: 02-Dec-24 (7:00 PM GMT+4)
2. USD: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change: 04-Dec-24 (5:15 PM GMT+4)
3. USD: ISM Services PMI: 04-Dec-24 (7:00 PM GMT+4)
4. USD: Fed Chair Powell Speaks: 04-Dec-24 (10:45 PM GMT+4)
5. USD: Unemployment Rate (NFP): 06-Dec-24 (5:30 PM GMT+4)
6. USD: CPI y/y: 11-Dec-24 (5:30 PM GMT+4)
7. USD: PPI: 12-Dec-24 (5:30 PM GMT+4)
8. GBP: GDP m/m: 12-Dec-24 (11:00 AM GMT+4)
9. GBP: Manuf PMI and Service PMI: 16-Dec-24 (1:30 AM GMT+4)
10. USD: Retails Sales: 17-Dec-24 (5:30 PM GMT+4)
11. GBP: CPI y/y: 18-Dec-24 (11:00 AM GMT+4)
12. USD: Interest Rate: 18-Dec-24 (11:00 PM GMT+4)
13. GBP: Interest Rate: 19-Dec-24 (4:00 PM GMT+4)
13. GBP: Retail Sales: 20-Dec-24 (11:00 AM GMT+4)
14. USD: Consumer Confidence: 23-Dec-24 (07:00 PM GMT+4)
15. USD: Unemployment Claims: 26-Dec-24 (5:30 PM GMT+4)
GBPUSD SEASONAL ANALYSIS MAPPED TO NEWS EVENTS
1. BULLISH: From 03 - 5 DEC
2. SIDEWAYS TO BEARISH: From 06 - 11 DEC
3. BEARISH: From 12 - 26 DEC
GBPUSD COT FLIP ANALYSIS FOR NON-COMMERCIALS
1. "Difference (Blue Line)", DECREASING for GBPUSD, that means Smart-Players are closing their LONG positions for GBP or cloaing their SHORT Position in USD.
2. The FLIP Data of OF USD, giving BUY signale and for GBP giving SELL signal
3. This will make GBPUSD BEARISH.
COT RSI ANALYSIS
1. The COT RSI for both GBP and USD is near zero.
2. The "Non-Comm LONG" position does not show sharp increase for both Currencies
3. Also "Net Non-Comm" does not show an increase trend
SUMMARY ON COT ANALYSIS
COT report does not yet give a strong SHORT or LONG BIAS but Data is favoring USD LONG,
hence GBPUSD Bearish movement matches with ENDO and EXO analysis as well.
DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
TREND: Bearish as per DOW, as also indicated by Fundamental analysis.
DIVERGENCE: No bullish divergence, meaning bearish movement continue.
HEIKIN-ASHI: Bearish movement will confirm after retracement to FIB level 23.6%.
PATTERN: Not any thing specific
FIB: Level 23.6% is tested as resistance and bearish movement might start.
S&R: Strong support at 1.2500 and current price is 1.2673. High probability that this support will be retested and it might break it.
EMA: Price Below 200 EMA
ALLIGATOR: Mouth is openning supporting strong bearish movement.
Scho-RSI: Above 80 and slightly going down
DAILY TRADE PLAY: STRONG BEARISH BIAS
Entry: 1.26730, SL: 1.27633,
TP1:1.25016, TP2: 1.24053
4H TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
TREND: Bullish to Sideways as per DOW
DIVERGENCE: None
HEIKIN-ASHI: Bullish confirmation needed
FIB: At 4H 38.20% is tested as resistance and bullish movement is expected
S&R: Resistance at 1.2740 and if breaken and bullish movement will get configmed.
EMA: Price Below 200 EMA and if broken then bullish trend will continue.
ALLIGATOR: Mouth is closed now but about to open.
Scho-RSI: Again turning up with some sideway movement.
4H TRADE PLAY: BULLISH BIAS
Entry: 1.2673, SL: 1.24993,
TP1:1.2777, TP2: 1.2811
1H TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
TREND: Bullish to Sideways and trend might become bullish after USD:Service PMI news on 4th December.
DIVERGENCE: None and bullish trend is expected to continue.
HEIKIN-ASHI: Bullish to Sdideways seen as well.
FIB: Price retraced to level 50% and then reacted to resistance at 23.60% level.
S&R: Resistance at 1.269 is respected one and if broken then bullish trend will continue.
EMA: Price above 200 EMA and it is respected as support.
ALLIGATOR: Partially open hence signalling sideway movement till 4th Dec news of Services PMI.
Scho-RSI: also signalling sideway movement.
1H TRADE PLAY: Pendding bullish order.
Buy Stop: 1.2703, SL: 1.28100,
TP1: 1.274, TP2: 1.2799
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إخلاء المسؤولية
لا يُقصد بالمعلومات والمنشورات أن تكون، أو تشكل، أي نصيحة مالية أو استثمارية أو تجارية أو أنواع أخرى من النصائح أو التوصيات المقدمة أو المعتمدة من TradingView. اقرأ المزيد في شروط الاستخدام.